OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
OH Leuven
15th · 20 pts · 21 played
DWLDL
First leg0–5
0–0Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 45 pts · 21 played
DDWDW
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 21). OH Leuven had 6.1 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 7 and had to travel 24 km.
Away travel24 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
OH Leuven22%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise54%
OH Leuven22%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise53%
OH Leuven22%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise54%
OH Leuven17%
Draw22%
Union St. Gilloise62%
OH Leuven22%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise54%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 13
Team strength
OH LeuvenUnion St. Gilloise
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
17
AttackIn forecast
62
30
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenUnion St. Gilloise
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.76
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.57
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
67%
Scored inContext
86%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
12.81
ShotsContext
14.81
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.62
32%
On target shareContext
38%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
11.78
65%
Box shareContext
75%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.65
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.29
Shots allowedContext
8.33
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.18
2.85
BlocksContext
2.45
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
71%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
340
PassesContext
428
263
Accurate passesContext
348
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.01
16.00
FoulsContext
12.38
11.05
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
3.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.70
ShotsContext
12.10
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
60%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
4.17
12.90
Shots allowedContext
8.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
2.90
BlocksContext
2.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
80%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
349
PassesContext
407
271
Accurate passesContext
324
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.92
15.40
FoulsContext
12.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel24 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 24 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
30T. Akimoto
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
7T. Verlinden
24Ł. Łakomy
8S. Schrijvers
27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz
14H. Teklab
19C. Ikwuemesi
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
6K. Van de Perre
10A. Ait El Hadj
17R. Schoofs
8A. Zorgane
27L. Patris
11G. da Silva Carvalho
12P. David
30R. Florucz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.30
Union St. Gilloise · Away
1.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-2
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 0.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Gent | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 20 of 60 · 1.00 per game | 42 of 60 · 2.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 OH Leuven wins0 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.33 – 4.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 3 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise5–0OH Leuven
- 2 Mar 2024OH Leuven0–2Union St. Gilloise
- 12 Aug 2023Union St. Gilloise5–1OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| OH Leuven | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 10% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 3.84 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 9.10 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 11/20 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 5.43 | 4.43 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 17/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 12/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| OH Leuven | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 6.88 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.31league 3.84
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+23%league 40%
Fouls22.8league 22.9
Penalties0.08league 0.28
Home wins31%league 42%
OH Leuven1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Dec 25H · Cercle Brugge0–24
Union St. GilloiseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven21 games · scored 19 · conceded 30
3
6
0-15
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Union St. Gilloise21 games · scored 37 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
61-75
10
5
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
