Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Jan 24 · 19:45 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
OH Leuven 15th · 20 pts · 21 played
First leg0–5 0–0Full time
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 45 pts · 21 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
OH Leuven22.0%fair odds 4.54
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.16
Union St. Gilloise54.0%fair odds 1.85
Expected goals1.10 – 1.83total 2.93
Likeliest score1–111.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

OH Leuven

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Union St. Gilloise

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

OH Leuven ↓ · Union St. Gilloise →0123456+
05.99.29.05.52.50.90.4
15.311.39.86.02.71.00.4
23.25.95.43.31.50.60.2
31.22.22.01.20.50.20.1
40.30.60.50.30.20.10.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are OH Leuven goals, columns Union St. Gilloise goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.3%8.83
  • 1–29.8%10.16
  • 0–19.2%10.82
  • 0–29.0%11.14
  • 1–36.0%16.66
  • 0–05.9%16.86
  • 2–15.9%16.97
  • 0–35.5%18.26
  • 2–25.4%18.55
  • 1–05.3%18.85

Winning margin

2.5% OH Leuven by 3+ fair 40.15
6.0% OH Leuven by 2 fair 16.70
13.5% OH Leuven by 1 fair 7.39
24.0% Draw fair 4.16
23.0% Union St. Gilloise by 1 fair 4.35
16.7% Union St. Gilloise by 2 fair 5.99
14.3% Union St. Gilloise by 3+ fair 6.99

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+

OH Leuven goals

33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+

Union St. Gilloise goals

16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
OH Leuven win 22.0% 22.0% -0.0 pp
Draw 24.0% 23.7% +0.4 pp
Union St. Gilloise win 54.0% 54.3% -0.3 pp
Over 2.5 56.0% 57.5% -1.5 pp
Both teams score 56.5% 57.6% -1.1 pp
Expected goals OH Leuven 1.10 1.12 -0.03
Expected goals Union St. Gilloise 1.83 1.87 -0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • OH Leuven win22.0%4.54
  • Draw24.0%4.16
  • Union St. Gilloise win54.0%1.85
  • Double chance OH Leuven or draw46.0%2.17
  • Double chance OH Leuven or Union St. Gilloise76.0%1.32
  • Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw78.0%1.28
  • Draw no bet OH Leuven29.0%3.45
  • Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise71.0%1.41

Goals

  • Over 0.594.1%1.06
  • Over 1.579.5%1.26
  • Over 2.556.0%1.79
  • Over 3.533.6%2.97
  • Over 4.517.2%5.80
  • Under 1.520.5%4.88
  • Under 2.544.0%2.27
  • Under 3.566.4%1.51

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.5%1.77
  • No43.5%2.30
  • Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
  • OH Leuven win and yes11.9%8.40
  • Draw and yes18.1%5.53
  • Union St. Gilloise win and yes26.5%3.78

Team goals

  • OH Leuven over 0.566.6%1.50
  • OH Leuven over 1.529.9%3.34
  • OH Leuven over 2.59.9%10.13
  • Union St. Gilloise over 0.584.0%1.19
  • Union St. Gilloise over 1.554.6%1.83
  • Union St. Gilloise over 2.527.7%3.60
  • OH Leuven clean sheet16.0%6.23
  • Union St. Gilloise clean sheet33.4%2.99
  • OH Leuven win to nil10.1%9.89
  • Union St. Gilloise win to nil27.5%3.64

Handicap

  • OH Leuven −1.58.5%11.79
  • OH Leuven −2.52.5%40.15
  • Union St. Gilloise +1.591.5%1.09
  • Union St. Gilloise +2.597.5%1.03
  • Union St. Gilloise −1.531.0%3.23
  • OH Leuven +1.569.0%1.45

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored171 Favourite won45.0% Avg chance given to result37.6% 1X2 Brier0.627 Over 2.5 called right53.2% BTTS called right52.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3238.1%37.5%
40–50%8444.9%34.5%
50–60%3654.7%61.1%
60–70%1564.7%80.0%
70–80%473.5%50.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 133 of 171 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.63260.6298
Avg chance given to result37.5%38.1%
Favourite won44.4%42.9%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 133 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 171 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.