Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Alaves. Osasuna had 7 days of rest, Alaves 5.9 and had to travel 84 km.
Away travel84 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Osasuna46%
Draw27%
Alaves26%
Osasuna46%
Draw26%
Alaves27%
Osasuna45%
Draw28%
Alaves27%
Osasuna39%
Draw28%
Alaves33%
Osasuna48%
Draw26%
Alaves26%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 33
Team strength
Osasuna
Alaves
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
48
50
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaAlaves
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
56%
Scored inContext
63%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.94
ShotsContext
10.88
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.31
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
68%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.19
Shots allowedContext
10.81
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
3.71
BlocksContext
3.79
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
74%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
371
PassesContext
420
295
Accurate passesContext
341
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.38
FoulsContext
15.69
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.63
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
12.10
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
32%
On target shareContext
26%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
70%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.60
OffsidesContext
3.13
12.20
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.25
BlocksContext
4.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
70%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
378
PassesContext
430
300
Accurate passesContext
356
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.60
FoulsContext
15.00
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alaves
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel84 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 84 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 703 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
23Abel Bretones
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
21A. Rebbach
11Toni Martínez
20Calebe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Alaves-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Alaves · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 0.43
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Osasuna wins3 draws0 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.38 – 0.50
Over 2.513%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets63% · 0%
- 24 May 2025Alaves1–1Osasuna
- 8 Dec 2024Osasuna2–2Alaves
- 4 Mar 2024Osasuna1–0Alaves
- 1 Oct 2023Alaves0–2Osasuna
- 10 Apr 2022Osasuna1–0Alaves
- 18 Sep 2021Alaves0–2Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 1.94 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 38% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Osasuna | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 1.90 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 5.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 7.58 | 9.80 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 5/14 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 3/14 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 7% 1/14 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.44 | 4.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Osasuna | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.44 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.91league 4.10
Red cards0.27league 0.27
Cards 5+64%league 45%
Fouls23.9league 24.6
Penalties0.21league 0.32
Home wins48%league 47%
Osasuna2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Sep 25H · Rayo Vallecano2–03
- W4 Jan 24H · Almeria1–01
Alaves1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Sep 23A · Celta Vigo1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna15 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
4
0-15
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
46-60
6
61-75
4
5
76-90
Alaves16 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
