Osasuna vs Celta Vigo – 26 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 26 · 17:30 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea

Osasuna 13th · 10 pts · 9 played LDLWL

2–3Full time

Celta Vigo 18th · 7 pts · 9 played DDLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Osasuna were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Osasuna had 7.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 2.9 and had to travel 584 km.

Away travel584 kmRest days7.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Osasuna44%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo28%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.11

Osasuna45%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Osasuna44%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo28%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.09

Osasuna37%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.24

Osasuna46%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.18

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Iruñea)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 115

Team strength

Osasuna

Celta Vigo

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

50 AttackIn forecast 36

50 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Osasuna

Celta Vigo

0.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.89

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

56% Scored inContext 89%

22% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.78 ShotsContext 11.22

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

30% On target shareContext 31%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.89

70% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.33

13.89 Shots allowedContext 11.44

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.75 BlocksContext 2.78

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

80% Save rateContext 80%

44% PossessionIn forecast 52%

382 PassesContext 515

304 Accurate passesContext 446

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.11 FoulsContext 11.22

10.44 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

1.89 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

60% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.80 ShotsContext 13.20

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

30% On target shareContext 32%

8.13 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

72% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.43

13.90 Shots allowedContext 11.40

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.75 BlocksContext 3.30

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

80% Save rateContext 79%

45% PossessionIn forecast 52%

382 PassesContext 527

305 Accurate passesContext 458

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.50 FoulsContext 11.80

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km634 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel584 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Osasuna	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	584 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	634 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Sergio Herrera(G)

29Asier Osambela 24Catena 22F. Boyomo

23Abel Bretones 16Moi Gómez 6Lucas Torró 7Moncayola

14Rubén García 17A. Budimir 21Víctor Muñoz

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 4J. Aidoo 12Manu Fernández

21M. Ristić 6I. Moriba 14Damián Rodríguez 5Sergio Carreira

15Bryan Zaragoza 7Borja Iglesias 9Ferran Jutglà

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Osasuna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Osasuna+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Celta Vigo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Celta Vigo · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Osasuna	Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Getafe	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 H
Real Betis	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Elche	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Villarreal	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Points	7 of 18 · 1.17 per game	4 of 18 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Osasuna wins2 draws4 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.10 Over 2.540% Both scored30% Clean sheets40% · 50%

21 Feb 2025Celta Vigo1–0Osasuna
1 Sep 2024Osasuna3–2Celta Vigo
4 Feb 2024Osasuna0–3Celta Vigo
13 Aug 2023Celta Vigo0–2Osasuna
6 Mar 2023Osasuna0–0Celta Vigo
5 Nov 2022Celta Vigo1–2Osasuna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Osasuna	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.78	0.89
Conceded per game	1.00	1.22
Match goals	1.78	2.11	2.55
Over 1.5	56%	100%
Over 2.5	22%	11%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	33%	89%	52%
Clean sheets	22%	0%
Failed to score	44%	11%
Games	9	9

	Osasuna	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.78	1.30
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	1.78	2.50	2.55
Over 1.5	56%	100%
Over 2.5	22%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	33%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	22%	0%
Failed to score	44%	0%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Osasuna	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	2.71	5.33
Corners conceded	4.29	4.67
Match total	7.00	10.00	9.86
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	14% 1/7	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/7	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.11	1.89
Opponent cards	1.89	2.33
Match total	4.00	4.22	4.40
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9

	Osasuna	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.10
Corners conceded	4.38	4.90
Match total	7.88	10.00	9.86
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.70
Opponent cards	1.90	2.40
Match total	4.00	4.10	4.40
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 115 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.26league 4.11

Red cards0.27league 0.28

Cards 5+62%league 46%

Fouls25.4league 24.8

Penalties0.29league 0.33

Home wins37%league 45%

Osasuna6 with this referee

Record1-1-4 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.7 Pens for · against3 · 0

L16 Mar 25H · Getafe1–22
L17 Sep 23A · Getafe2–32
W18 Sep 21A · Alaves2–03
D21 Jan 21A · Valencia1–13
L6 Dec 20H · Real Betis0–23

Celta Vigo10 with this referee

Record1-4-5 Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.1 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L19 Oct 24H · Real Madrid1–22
D31 Mar 24H · Rayo Vallecano0–03
L11 Feb 24A · Getafe2–32
D4 Nov 23H · Sevilla1–12
D2 Apr 23H · Almeria2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.