Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 47). Absences weigh more on Osasuna. Osasuna had 5 days of rest, Getafe 6.3 and had to travel 329 km.
Away travel329 kmRest days5 · 6.3Matches / 14d3 · 3
Osasuna46%
Draw28%
Getafe26%
Osasuna49%
Draw26%
Getafe25%
Osasuna47%
Draw28%
Getafe25%
Osasuna39%
Draw29%
Getafe32%
Osasuna48%
Draw26%
Getafe26%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 24
Team strength
Osasuna
Getafe
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
27
50
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaGetafe
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
57%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.00
ShotsContext
8.43
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.86
30%
On target shareContext
34%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.67
67%
Box shareContext
50%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.43
Shots allowedContext
9.71
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
4.14
BlocksContext
2.14
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
79%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
378
PassesContext
286
304
Accurate passesContext
205
81%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.57
FoulsContext
14.43
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.86
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
8.50
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
28%
On target shareContext
31%
8.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.11
69%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.90
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.25
BlocksContext
2.10
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
84%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
366
PassesContext
277
294
Accurate passesContext
194
80%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.70
FoulsContext
13.30
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,105 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Getafe
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel329 km1,020 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 329 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,105 km | 1,020 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 16 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
3Juan Cruz
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
23Abel Bretones
16Moi Gómez
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
19V. Rosier
21Víctor Muñoz
17A. Budimir
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
3A. Abqar
22Domingos Duarte
21Juan Iglesias
17Kiko Femenía
6Mario Martín
5Luis Milla
8M. Arambarri
9Borja Mayoral
18Alex Sancris
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Getafe+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Getafe · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Osasuna wins3 draws6 Getafe wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.50
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 40%
- 16 Mar 2025Osasuna1–2Getafe
- 5 Oct 2024Getafe1–1Osasuna
- 21 Jan 2024Osasuna3–2Getafe
- 17 Sep 2023Getafe3–2Osasuna
- 28 May 2023Getafe2–1Osasuna
- 18 Sep 2022Osasuna0–2Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 2.43 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Osasuna | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 2.43 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 8.71 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 5.57 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Osasuna | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.30 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.20 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.91
Red cards0.17league 0.26
Cards 5+25%league 43%
Fouls25.5league 24.5
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins46%league 47%
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Feb 24H · Celta Vigo0–32
Getafe1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Feb 24A · Villarreal1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna7 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Getafe7 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
