Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 57). Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Osasuna had 7.9 days of rest, Real Madrid 6.9 and had to travel 317 km.
Away travel317 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Osasuna19%
Draw24%
Real Madrid57%
Osasuna19%
Draw24%
Real Madrid57%
Osasuna18%
Draw24%
Real Madrid58%
Osasuna14%
Draw21%
Real Madrid64%
Osasuna19%
Draw23%
Real Madrid57%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 16
Team strength
Osasuna
Real Madrid
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
50
AttackIn forecast
89
50
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaReal Madrid
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.21
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.79
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
63%
Scored inContext
92%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
10.67
ShotsContext
18.00
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.79
33%
On target shareContext
38%
7.68
Shots in the boxContext
11.29
68%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.54
Shots allowedContext
9.75
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.45
3.38
BlocksContext
3.18
3.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
75%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
366
PassesContext
574
291
Accurate passesContext
515
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.16
13.00
FoulsContext
10.38
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.71
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
2.08
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.40
ShotsContext
16.70
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
34%
On target shareContext
40%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
69%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.22
BlocksContext
3.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
76%
Save rateContext
78%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
340
PassesContext
579
265
Accurate passesContext
521
78%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.22
13.60
FoulsContext
10.40
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,025 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel317 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Feb | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 317 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,025 km | 604 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
4D. Alaba
17Raúl Asencio
2Dani Carvajal
6E. Camavinga
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Madrid-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-2
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 1.18
Real Madrid · Away
2.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Girona | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Alaves | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 H | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 2–5 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 69 · 1.30 per game | 57 of 69 · 2.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Osasuna wins3 draws7 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets10% · 60%
- 19 Aug 2025Real Madrid1–0Osasuna
- 15 Feb 2025Osasuna1–1Real Madrid
- 9 Nov 2024Real Madrid4–0Osasuna
- 16 Mar 2024Osasuna2–4Real Madrid
- 7 Oct 2023Real Madrid4–0Osasuna
- 18 Feb 2023Osasuna0–2Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 0.79 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 58% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 8% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Osasuna | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 10.24 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 76% 16/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 6/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 2/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 4.25 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 20/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 13/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Osasuna | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 11.22 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.80 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.18
Red cards0.56league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls24.6league 24.6
Penalties0.38league 0.38
Home wins31%league 47%
Osasuna2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W17 Jan 26H · Oviedo3–22
- L3 May 25A · Villarreal2–41
Real Madrid1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.8.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L7 Dec 25H · Celta Vigo0–28
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna23 games · scored 28 · conceded 28
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
10
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
9
61-75
10
5
76-90
Real Madrid24 games · scored 53 · conceded 19
4
1
0-15
8
2
16-30
12
3
31-45
9
6
46-60
6
4
61-75
14
3
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 28 · conceded 8
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
9
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
