Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Osasuna. Osasuna had 14.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 14.9 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days14.1 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Osasuna41%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad30%
Osasuna44%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad29%
Osasuna43%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad29%
Osasuna35%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad37%
Osasuna42%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad31%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 28
Team strength
Osasuna
Real Sociedad
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
50
AttackIn forecast
62
50
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaReal Sociedad
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
50%
Scored inContext
83%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
9.50
ShotsContext
13.08
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.58
69%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.11
12.75
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.36
BlocksContext
3.60
3.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
77%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
390
PassesContext
420
315
Accurate passesContext
344
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.33
FoulsContext
15.75
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.60
ShotsContext
12.80
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
71%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
3.57
13.10
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.33
BlocksContext
2.88
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
76%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
392
PassesContext
422
317
Accurate passesContext
342
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.20
FoulsContext
16.40
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel61 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 14.9La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
3Juan Cruz
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
23Abel Bretones
16Moi Gómez
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
10Aimar Oroz
9Raúl García
21Víctor Muñoz
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
21A. Zakharyan
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
23Brais Méndez
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Real Sociedad+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
Real Sociedad · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-3
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 8 of 27 · 0.89 per game | 7 of 27 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Osasuna wins2 draws5 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.10
Over 2.510%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets20% · 50%
- 2 Feb 2025Osasuna2–1Real Sociedad
- 27 Oct 2024Real Sociedad0–2Osasuna
- 10 Feb 2024Real Sociedad0–1Osasuna
- 2 Dec 2023Osasuna1–1Real Sociedad
- 28 Apr 2023Osasuna0–2Real Sociedad
- 31 Dec 2022Real Sociedad2–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 2.58 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 8% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 75% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Osasuna | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 10.67 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Osasuna | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.22 | 10.60 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.29league 3.99
Red cards0.32league 0.25
Cards 5+68%league 43%
Fouls24.7league 24.6
Penalties0.29league 0.35
Home wins50%league 49%
Osasuna2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L9 Mar 24A · Girona0–23
- W20 Oct 23H · Granada CF2–03
Real Sociedad5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.3.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L19 Sep 25A · Real Betis1–36
- L23 Apr 25A · Alaves0–15
- L2 Mar 24A · Sevilla2–32
- D17 Dec 23H · Real Betis0–03
- D29 Oct 23A · Rayo Vallecano2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna11 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Real Sociedad12 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
