Osasuna vs Real Sociedad

La Liga Gameweek 35 Sun, May 9 · 16:00 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea

Osasuna 10th · 11 pts · 9 played LLDLW

VS— Compare

Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played WLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel61 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Osasuna—%

Draw—%

Real Sociedad—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Iruñea)

Forecast from 24 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Real Sociedad 5 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Osasuna

Real Sociedad

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

50 AttackIn forecast 62

50 DefenceIn forecast 48

31 Form indexContext 81

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Osasuna

Real Sociedad

1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

67% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 11%

10.78 ShotsContext 14.11

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44

40% On target shareContext 39%

7.63 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

64% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.14

13.22 Shots allowedContext 16.56

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22

3.89 BlocksContext 4.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56

51% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 49%

390 PassesContext 467

316 Accurate passesContext 399

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.89

14.67 FoulsContext 12.11

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.22

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.62

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.80 ShotsContext 13.80

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

41% On target shareContext 38%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

64% Box shareContext 55%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.80

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

3.70 BlocksContext 3.90

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

53% Save rateContext 70%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

373 PassesContext 481

298 Accurate passesContext 410

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.82

15.20 FoulsContext 12.40

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna LLDLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km703 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Racing Santander2–01.7 xPts
L11 OctA · Real Betis2–50.8 xPts
D19 SepH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.5 xPts
L16 SepA · Atletico Madrid0–40.9 xPts
L12 SepH · Espanyol0–21.8 xPts

Real Sociedad LWWDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel61 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Osasuna	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2026-2027, 2 May	7La Liga 2026-2027, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	61 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	703 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Racing Santander (H) 2–0, 18 Oct

13Aitor Fernández(G)

23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier

16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola

21J. Dubasin 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Osasuna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 0.60

Real Sociedad · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-2
Scored: 2.40
Conceded: 2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Osasuna	Real Sociedad
Real Betis	L 2–5 A	L 0–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–4 A	L 0–3 H
Espanyol	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 H
Celta Vigo	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 H
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Osasuna wins1 draws6 Real Sociedad wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.50 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

15 Mar 2026Real Sociedad3–1Osasuna
22 Nov 2025Osasuna1–3Real Sociedad
2 Feb 2025Osasuna2–1Real Sociedad
27 Oct 2024Real Sociedad0–2Osasuna
10 Feb 2024Real Sociedad0–1Osasuna
2 Dec 2023Osasuna1–1Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Osasuna	Real Sociedad
Scored per game	1.11	1.89
Conceded per game	2.00	1.89
Match goals	3.11	3.78
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	44%	78%
Over 3.5	33%	56%
Both teams scored	44%	67%
Clean sheets	33%	11%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	9	9

	Osasuna	Real Sociedad
Scored per game	1.00	1.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.90
Match goals	2.90	3.80
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	80%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Osasuna	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	4.50	4.89
Match total	8.50	11.89	9.91
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.67	2.33
Opponent cards	2.00	2.56
Match total	4.67	4.89	4.73
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9

	Osasuna	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	4.22	4.70
Match total	8.22	11.70	9.91
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.40
Match total	4.50	4.60	4.73
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.