La Liga Gameweek 35 Sun, May 9 · 16:00 Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander
Racing Santander 16th · 8 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel701 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Racing Santander—%
Draw—%
Sevilla—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Santander)

Forecast from 24 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Racing Santander and Sevilla. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Racing SantanderSevilla
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
41 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
42 AttackIn forecast 48
22 DefenceIn forecast 57
34 Form indexContext 67
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Racing Santander

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Racing SantanderSevilla
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56
2.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.05
2.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
67% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 22%
11.22 ShotsContext 11.78
4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
40% On target shareContext 37%
6.38 Shots in the boxContext 7.44
54% Box shareContext 61%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.78 OffsidesContext 2.14
16.33 Shots allowedContext 12.67
6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.63
3.56 BlocksContext 3.29
5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
61% Save rateContext 60%
50% PossessionIn forecast 41%
437 PassesContext 344
362 Accurate passesContext 267
83% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.62 Team ratingContext 6.74
13.78 FoulsContext 14.67
14.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89
2.67 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.03
2.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.37
70% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.20 ShotsContext 11.50
4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
39% On target shareContext 36%
7.56 Shots in the boxContext 7.10
57% Box shareContext 59%
14% ConversionContext 12%
1.80 OffsidesContext 2.13
15.90 Shots allowedContext 12.60
6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
3.40 BlocksContext 3.00
4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
62% Save rateContext 60%
50% PossessionIn forecast 42%
441 PassesContext 353
367 Accurate passesContext 278
83% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.72
13.40 FoulsContext 15.20
14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Racing Santander
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km742 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Osasuna0–21.1 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Valencia2–21.6 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Celta Vigo0–51.2 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Barcelona2–70.2 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Alaves2–11.3 xPts
Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel701 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Racing Santander Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 2 May7La Liga 2026-2027, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km701 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways742 km1,176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 41 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Racing Santander Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Osasuna (A) 0–2, 18 Oct
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas 24J. Belocian 5Pablo Ramón 2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati 23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente 8André Almeida 20Sergio Canales
21M. Zabiri
Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Racing Santander Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Racing Santander · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
1.75
Sevilla · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-2-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentRacing SantanderSevilla
Valencia D 2–2 H W 1–0 H
Barcelona L 2–7 A L 1–3 H
Rayo Vallecano L 2–3 A W 2–1 H
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Racing SantanderSevillaForecast
Scored per game 1.441.56
Conceded per game 2.781.78
Match goals 4.223.33
Over 1.5 89%78%
Over 2.5 78%67%
Over 3.5 67%56%
Both teams scored 67%78%
Clean sheets 0%22%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games99
Racing SantanderSevillaForecast
Scored per game 1.441.40
Conceded per game 2.781.70
Match goals 4.223.10
Over 1.5 89%70%
Over 2.5 78%60%
Over 3.5 67%50%
Both teams scored 67%70%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 33%10%
Games910

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Racing SantanderSevillaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.253.00
Corners conceded7.003.56
Match total12.256.569.91
Over 8.588% 7/822% 2/9
Over 9.588% 7/822% 2/9
Over 10.575% 6/811% 1/9
Cards
Cards2.783.33
Opponent cards2.672.11
Match total5.455.444.73
Over 3.589% 8/978% 7/9
Over 4.578% 7/956% 5/9
Racing SantanderSevillaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.003.00
Corners conceded6.563.60
Match total11.566.609.91
Over 8.578% 7/920% 2/10
Over 9.578% 7/920% 2/10
Over 10.567% 6/910% 1/10
Cards
Cards2.503.10
Opponent cards2.402.00
Match total4.905.104.73
Over 3.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Racing Santander9 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
2 3 0-15
4 3 16-30
4 7 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
8 76-90
Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 17 · conceded 26
3 3 0-15
5 3 16-30
5 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
8 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Athletic Club Malaga May 916:00 Valencia Atletico Madrid May 916:00 Villarreal Celta Vigo May 916:00 Real Madrid Barcelona May 916:00 Alaves Levante May 916:00 Real Betis Espanyol May 916:00 Getafe Elche May 916:00 Osasuna Real Sociedad May 916:00 Rayo Vallecano Deportivo La Coruna May 916:00 Racing Santander Sevilla May 916:00