Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Osasuna. Osasuna had 7.1 days of rest, Villarreal 6.8 and had to travel 345 km.
Away travel345 kmRest days7.1 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Osasuna39%
Draw29%
Villarreal32%
Osasuna36%
Draw27%
Villarreal37%
Osasuna39%
Draw29%
Villarreal32%
Osasuna32%
Draw29%
Villarreal38%
Osasuna40%
Draw27%
Villarreal33%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 44
Team strength
Osasuna
Villarreal
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
50
AttackIn forecast
76
50
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaVillarreal
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.85
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
62%
Scored inContext
80%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
10.86
ShotsContext
12.35
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.55
33%
On target shareContext
37%
7.74
Shots in the boxContext
8.45
67%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.46
12.43
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.68
3.26
BlocksContext
4.61
3.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.53
75%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
370
PassesContext
401
293
Accurate passesContext
334
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.71
FoulsContext
12.15
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.35
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.30
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
66%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.43
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.22
BlocksContext
4.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
344
PassesContext
359
265
Accurate passesContext
289
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.10
FoulsContext
13.90
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel345 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 345 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 1,167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 9.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
15Raúl Moro
21Víctor Muñoz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
4Rafa Marín
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
10Dani Parejo
18P. Gueye
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Villarreal+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
2.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.10
Villarreal · Away
1.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-3
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Girona | L 0–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Alaves | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 H | W 3–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 22 of 57 · 1.16 per game | 38 of 57 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Osasuna wins2 draws5 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.90
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 20 Sep 2025Villarreal2–1Osasuna
- 3 May 2025Villarreal4–2Osasuna
- 24 Nov 2024Osasuna2–2Villarreal
- 25 May 2024Osasuna1–1Villarreal
- 26 Nov 2023Villarreal3–1Osasuna
- 19 Mar 2023Osasuna0–3Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.85 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.90 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 45% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 20% | |
| Games | 21 | 20 |
| Osasuna | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.59 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.77 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 7/18 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 4/18 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 6% 1/18 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.40 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 17/21 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 12/21 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Osasuna | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 8.60 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.20 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 4.16
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+32%league 46%
Fouls22.0league 24.6
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins50%league 48%
Osasuna2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Oct 25A · Atletico Madrid0–13
- L26 Nov 23A · Villarreal1–30
Villarreal2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 May 25H · Leganes3–01
- W26 Nov 23H · Osasuna3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna20 games · scored 24 · conceded 25
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
8
61-75
9
5
76-90
Villarreal20 games · scored 37 · conceded 21
4
3
0-15
6
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
8
5
46-60
7
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
2
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
