Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 27). Real Sociedad usually keep the ball (52% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Oviedo had 5.9 days of rest, Real Sociedad 6 and had to travel 313 km.
Away travel313 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Oviedo26%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad45%
Oviedo28%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad46%
Oviedo26%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad45%
Oviedo21%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad53%
Oviedo28%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad46%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.75
- Matches 4
Team strength
Oviedo
Real Sociedad
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
23
AttackIn forecast
62
39
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoReal Sociedad
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
2.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
-0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
0%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
5.50
ShotsContext
14.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
64%
On target shareContext
35%
3.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
55%
Box shareContext
62%
0%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
25.00
Shots allowedContext
16.00
9.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
7.00
BlocksContext
6.50
8.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
84%
Save rateContext
40%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
352
PassesContext
410
293
Accurate passesContext
356
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.00
FoulsContext
12.50
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
—
Scored inContext
40%
—
Clean sheetsContext
10%
—
ShotsContext
11.10
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
—
On target shareContext
33%
—
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
—
Box shareContext
65%
—
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
—
Shots allowedContext
11.30
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
—
BlocksContext
3.11
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
—
Save rateContext
52%
—
PossessionIn forecast
53%
—
PassesContext
446
—
Accurate passesContext
380
—
Pass accuracyContext
85%
—
Team ratingContext
6.79
—
FoulsContext
12.60
—
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel313 km894 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 313 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 894 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
12Dani Calvo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
5Alberto Reina
20L. Dendoncker
7I. Chaira
14O. Ejaria
21L. Ilić
9Federico Viñas
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz
16D. Ćaleta-Car
5Zubeldia
2J. Aramburu
7Barrenetxea
4Jon Gorrotxategi
28Pablo Marín
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
9O. Óskarsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Real Sociedad · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Oviedo | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Oviedo | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.50 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.50
Red cards0.50league 0.25
Cards 5+50%league 29%
Fouls26.5league 23.9
Penalties0.75league 0.38
Home wins100%league 46%
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
Real SociedadNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo2 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Real Sociedad2 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Oviedo2 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
6
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
