Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Oviedo had 11.1 days of rest, Villarreal 11 and had to travel 610 km.
Away travel610 kmRest days11.1 · 11Matches / 14d1 · 1
Oviedo28%
Draw29%
Villarreal44%
Oviedo24%
Draw25%
Villarreal51%
Oviedo27%
Draw29%
Villarreal44%
Oviedo22%
Draw27%
Villarreal51%
Oviedo28%
Draw27%
Villarreal46%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 49
Team strength
Oviedo
Villarreal
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
23
AttackIn forecast
76
39
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoVillarreal
0.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.81
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
48%
Scored inContext
84%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.23
ShotsContext
11.90
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
34%
On target shareContext
38%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.32
61%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.48
OffsidesContext
2.74
14.84
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
3.90
BlocksContext
4.17
4.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
75%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
377
PassesContext
391
307
Accurate passesContext
321
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.61
FoulsContext
11.74
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.94
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.40
ShotsContext
11.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
40%
On target shareContext
38%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
64%
Box shareContext
73%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.50
BlocksContext
3.50
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
71%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
378
PassesContext
364
298
Accurate passesContext
292
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.30
FoulsContext
11.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest11.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km532 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest11 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel610 km876 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.1La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 11La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 610 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 532 km | 876 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25Arnau Tenas(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
11Alfon González
10Dani Parejo
18P. Gueye
17T. Buchanan
21T. Oluwaseyi
19N. Pépé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Villarreal-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
1.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-6
- Scored
- 0.47
- Conceded
- 0.93
Villarreal · Away
1.50points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-6
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | W 3–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Levante | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Valencia | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Girona | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 AW 5–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Osasuna | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Alaves | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 27 of 90 · 0.90 per game | 58 of 90 · 1.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Oviedo wins0 draws1 Villarreal wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 15 Aug 2025Villarreal2–0Oviedo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.77 | 1.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 2.32 | 2.97 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 58% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 58% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 52% | 16% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Oviedo | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.73 | 5.04 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 8.86 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 18/30 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 16/30 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 11/30 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 3.87 | 4.48 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 16/31 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 11/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Oviedo | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 9.10 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.70 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 4.29
Red cards0.24league 0.28
Cards 5+33%league 48%
Fouls22.0league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins49%league 49%
Oviedo2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W30 Sep 25A · Valencia2–14
- L24 Aug 25H · Real Madrid0–32
Villarreal3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D31 Jan 26A · Osasuna2–22
- W14 May 25H · Leganes3–01
- W26 Nov 23H · Osasuna3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo30 games · scored 24 · conceded 48
2
4
0-15
2
7
16-30
8
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
10
61-75
4
13
76-90
Villarreal31 games · scored 56 · conceded 36
6
3
0-15
9
4
16-30
13
6
31-45
12
7
46-60
8
5
61-75
8
11
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
