Panathinaikos vs GO Ahead Eagles – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens

Panathinaikos 1st · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–2Full time

GO Ahead Eagles 31st · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Panathinaikos were slight favourites.

Panathinaikos were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 26). Absences weigh more on GO Ahead Eagles. Panathinaikos had 6.9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 4.1 and had to travel 2,091 km.

Away travel2,091 kmRest days6.9 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 3

Panathinaikos57%

Draw23%

GO Ahead Eagles20%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.02

Panathinaikos56%

Draw24%

GO Ahead Eagles20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Panathinaikos56%

Draw23%

GO Ahead Eagles20%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.04

Panathinaikos49%

Draw25%

GO Ahead Eagles25%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.14

Panathinaikos56%

Draw24%

GO Ahead Eagles19%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.96

Over 2.5 55% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Athens)

No weather data yet

RefereeSebastian Gishamer

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 28

Team strength

Panathinaikos

GO Ahead Eagles

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

48 AttackIn forecast 29

50 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Panathinaikos

Attack—

Defense risk—

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Panathinaikos

GO Ahead Eagles

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

— xGVia Att/Def 1.69

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66

— Goals minus xGContext +0.01

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.13 ShotsContext 15.10

3.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

30% On target shareContext 40%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.89

61% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 11%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.40

10.00 Shots allowedContext 18.30

2.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

2.25 BlocksContext 7.13

1.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

58% Save rateContext 68%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

467 PassesContext 465

397 Accurate passesContext 394

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.63 FoulsContext 8.70

14.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Panathinaikos

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,322 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel2,091 km269 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Panathinaikos	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep	4.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,091 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,322 km	269 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Panathinaikos Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40A. Lafont(G)

77G. Kyriakopoulos 5A. Touba 14E. Palmer-Brown 27G. Kotsiras

16A. Gnezda Čerin 4Pedro Chirivella 11A. Bakasetas

9A. Zaroury 19K. Świderski 10Tetê

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22J. De Busser(G)

5D. James 4J. Kramer 3G. Nauber 2M. Deijl

8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen

18R. Margaret 7J. Breum 17M. Suray

9M. Smit

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Panathinaikos Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Panathinaikos+0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GO Ahead Eagles-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Panathinaikos · Home No home games yet this season.

GO Ahead Eagles · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Panathinaikos	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	1.00	2.89
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Panathinaikos	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	1.63
Conceded per game	1.00	1.75
Match goals	5.00	3.38	2.89
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	100%	75%	55%
Over 3.5	100%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	1	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Panathinaikos	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	9.00	1.00
Match total	13.00	8.00	9.28
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	5.00
Match total	1.00	6.00	4.50
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Panathinaikos	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	6.70
Corners conceded	4.63	4.80
Match total	10.01	11.50	9.28
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.10
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	5.00	3.10	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sebastian Gishamer 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 4.39

Red cards0.29league 0.11

Cards 5+39%league 56%

Fouls23.0league 26.3

Penalties0.18league 0.22

Home wins64%league 39%

Panathinaikos

No previous matches with this referee.

GO Ahead Eagles

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.