UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 20:00 Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens
Panathinaikos 19th · 6 pts · 4 played
2–1Full time
Sturm Graz 28th · 4 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Panathinaikos were slight favourites.

Panathinaikos were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 29). Absences weigh more on Panathinaikos. Panathinaikos had 21.1 days of rest, Sturm Graz 21.1 and had to travel 1,216 km.

Away travel1,216 kmRest days21.1 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Panathinaikos51%
Draw25%
Sturm Graz24%
Expected goals 1.78 – 1.15
Panathinaikos53%
Draw25%
Sturm Graz22%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.03
Panathinaikos54%
Draw24%
Sturm Graz22%
Expected goals 1.80 – 1.07
Panathinaikos44%
Draw26%
Sturm Graz31%
Expected goals 1.59 – 1.29
Panathinaikos51%
Draw25%
Sturm Graz24%
Expected goals 1.71 – 1.11
Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Athens)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.47
  • Matches 81

Team strength

PanathinaikosSturm Graz
44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
48 AttackIn forecast 32
50 DefenceIn forecast 37
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Panathinaikos

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sturm Graz

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PanathinaikosSturm Graz
1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25
1.47 xGVia Att/Def 0.77
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.98
+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.02
100% Scored inContext 50%
25% Clean sheetsContext 25%
18.00 ShotsContext 9.25
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75
33% On target shareContext 41%
10.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.50
58% Box shareContext 61%
10% ConversionContext 8%
4.00 OffsidesContext 3.33
14.00 Shots allowedContext 12.75
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
3.75 BlocksContext 2.67
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.75
71% Save rateContext 79%
49% PossessionIn forecast 41%
458 PassesContext 337
389 Accurate passesContext 250
85% Pass accuracyContext 74%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.77
9.75 FoulsContext 17.00
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.25
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.57 xGVia Att/Def 0.72
1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.45
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.68
90% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
15.50 ShotsContext 13.70
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
35% On target shareContext 31%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.90
61% Box shareContext 63%
9% ConversionContext 10%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.44
8.60 Shots allowedContext 13.10
2.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.44 BlocksContext 3.33
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
71% Save rateContext 66%
54% PossessionIn forecast 53%
484 PassesContext 409
411 Accurate passesContext 318
85% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.80
14.00 FoulsContext 12.20
13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Panathinaikos
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Sturm Graz
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,216 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Panathinaikos Sturm Graz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,216 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one1413.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Panathinaikos Confirmed XI
3-4-3
69B. Drągowski(G)
5A. Touba 14E. Palmer-Brown 15S. Ingason
9A. Zaroury 11A. Bakasetas 16A. Gnezda Čerin 2D. Calabria
31F. Đuričić 19K. Świderski 10Tetê
+15 more reported missing outside this XI
Sturm Graz Confirmed XI
4-3-1-2
1O. Christensen(G)
17E. Karić 35N. Geyrhofer 47E. Aiwu 2J. Mitchell
21T. Chukwuani 4J. Gorenc Stankovič 8Filip Rózga
10O. Kiteishvili
20S. Jatta 77M. Malone
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Panathinaikos Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sturm Graz Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Panathinaikos-2.3 pp
  • Draw+0.2 pp
  • Sturm Graz+2.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Panathinaikos · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00
Sturm Graz · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
0.50
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

PanathinaikosSturm GrazForecast
Scored per game 1.750.75
Conceded per game 1.501.25
Match goals 3.252.00 2.93
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 75%50% 56%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 75%50% 57%
Clean sheets 25%25%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games44
PanathinaikosSturm GrazForecast
Scored per game 1.750.75
Conceded per game 1.501.25
Match goals 3.252.00 2.93
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 75%50% 56%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 75%50% 57%
Clean sheets 25%25%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games44

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PanathinaikosSturm GrazLeague
Corners
Corners won5.252.67
Corners conceded4.756.67
Match total10.009.349.08
Over 8.550% 2/467% 2/3
Over 9.550% 2/467% 2/3
Over 10.550% 2/433% 1/3
Cards
Cards2.501.75
Opponent cards1.251.25
Match total3.753.004.26
Over 3.550% 2/425% 1/4
Over 4.550% 2/425% 1/4
PanathinaikosSturm GrazLeague
Corners
Corners won5.225.00
Corners conceded2.895.00
Match total8.1110.009.08
Over 8.522% 2/978% 7/9
Over 9.522% 2/978% 7/9
Over 10.522% 2/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.401.70
Opponent cards2.102.20
Match total4.503.904.26
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 81 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.25league 4.06
Red cards0.16league 0.16
Cards 5+42%league 41%
Fouls24.7league 24.7
Penalties0.47league 0.40
Home wins36%league 49%
Panathinaikos2 with this referee
Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D30 Jul 25H · Rangers1–11
  • L25 Sep 23H · AEK Athens FC1–23
Sturm Graz

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Panathinaikos4 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Sturm Graz4 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
2 1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
Panathinaikos10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Sturm Graz10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4 1 0-15
4 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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