PAOK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PAOK64.1%fair odds 1.56
Draw20.8%fair odds 4.82
Maccabi Tel Aviv15.2%fair odds 6.59
Expected goals2.13 – 0.95total 3.08
Likeliest score2–010.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PAOK ↓ · Maccabi Tel Aviv → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PAOK goals, columns Maccabi Tel Aviv goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.5%9.55
- 2–19.9%10.10
- 1–19.8%10.22
- 1–09.3%10.71
- 3–07.4%13.44
- 3–17.0%14.22
- 0–05.1%19.60
- 2–24.7%21.36
- 1–24.4%22.77
- 4–04.0%25.22
Winning margin
21.3%
PAOK by 3+
fair 4.68
19.5%
PAOK by 2
fair 5.12
23.2%
PAOK by 1
fair 4.31
20.8%
Draw
fair 4.82
10.0%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 1
fair 9.99
3.8%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 2
fair 26.01
1.3%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 3+
fair 75.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
PAOK goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Maccabi Tel Aviv goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK win | 64.1% | 62.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 21.9% | -1.2 pp |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 15.2% | 15.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 55.2% | +4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.4% | 51.7% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals PAOK | 2.13 | 2.00 | +0.13 |
| Expected goals Maccabi Tel Aviv | 0.95 | 0.90 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PAOK win64.1%1.56
- Draw20.8%4.82
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win15.2%6.59
- Double chance PAOK or draw84.8%1.18
- Double chance PAOK or Maccabi Tel Aviv79.2%1.26
- Double chance Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw35.9%2.78
- Draw no bet PAOK80.8%1.24
- Draw no bet Maccabi Tel Aviv19.2%5.22
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.7%1.22
- Over 2.559.4%1.68
- Over 3.537.0%2.70
- Over 4.519.8%5.06
- Under 1.518.3%5.46
- Under 2.540.6%2.46
- Under 3.563.0%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes54.4%1.84
- No45.6%2.19
- Yes and over 2.544.6%2.24
- PAOK win and yes30.3%3.30
- Draw and yes15.7%6.39
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win and yes8.4%11.89
Team goals
- PAOK over 0.588.1%1.13
- PAOK over 1.562.8%1.59
- PAOK over 2.535.9%2.79
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 0.561.2%1.64
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 1.524.4%4.09
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 2.57.1%14.17
- PAOK clean sheet38.8%2.57
- Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet11.9%8.43
- PAOK win to nil33.7%2.96
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win to nil6.8%14.78
Handicap
- PAOK −1.540.9%2.45
- PAOK −2.521.3%4.68
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +1.559.1%1.69
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +2.578.7%1.27
- Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.55.2%19.34
- PAOK +1.594.8%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.