PAOK vs Maccabi Tel Aviv – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 17:45 Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki

PAOK

0–0Full time

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PAOK were clear favourites.

PAOK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 21). PAOK had ? days of rest, Maccabi Tel Aviv ? and had to travel.

Matches / 14d0 · 0

PAOK64%

Draw21%

Maccabi Tel Aviv15%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.95

PAOK62%

Draw22%

Maccabi Tel Aviv16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.90

PAOK64%

Draw21%

Maccabi Tel Aviv15%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.95

PAOK56%

Draw23%

Maccabi Tel Aviv20%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.06

PAOK62%

Draw22%

Maccabi Tel Aviv16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.90

Over 2.5 59% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Thessaloníki)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySven Jablonski

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 82

Team strength

PAOK

Maccabi Tel Aviv

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

45 AttackIn forecast 19

55 DefenceIn forecast 20

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PAOK

Attack—

Defense risk—

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PAOK

Maccabi Tel Aviv

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

— xGVia Att/Def 1.17

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

— Goals minus xGContext +0.33

70% Scored inContext 70%

70% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.88 ShotsContext 11.00

5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

37% On target shareContext 49%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

59% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.00 Shots allowedContext 10.83

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

2.17 BlocksContext 4.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

88% Save rateContext 60%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

484 PassesContext 399

408 Accurate passesContext 323

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.93

13.38 FoulsContext 10.33

13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PAOK

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PAOK	Maccabi Tel Aviv
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

PAOK Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pavlenka(G)

21A. Baba 5G. Michailidis 16T. Kędziora 3J. Kenny

27M. Ozdoev 8S. Meïté

11Taison 65G. Konstantelias 14A. Živković

7G. Giakoumakis

Maccabi Tel Aviv Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

90R. Mishpati(G)

3R. Revivo 5M. Camara 13R. Shlomo 6T. Asante

17K. Belić 28I. Sissokho

11S. Jehezkel 10K. Andrade 77O. Davida

42D. Peretz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PAOK Absences are shown before kick-off

Maccabi Tel Aviv Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PAOK+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

PAOK · Home No home games yet this season.

Maccabi Tel Aviv · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	PAOK	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.08
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	PAOK	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.08
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PAOK	Maccabi Tel Aviv
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	PAOK	Maccabi Tel Aviv
Corners
Corners won	5.25	5.17
Corners conceded	2.88	4.67
Match total	8.13	9.84
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	3.10	2.60
Match total	4.90	4.40
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93

Red cards0.10

Cards 5+43%

Fouls19.9

Penalties0.21

Home wins41%

PAOK1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L10 Nov 24H · Olympiakos Piraeus2–32

Maccabi Tel Aviv

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.