UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 22 · 17:45 Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki
PAOK 18th · 9 pts · 6 played
2–0Full time
Real Betis 4th · 14 pts · 6 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 55). PAOK had 42 days of rest, Real Betis 4.9 and had to travel 2,512 km.

Away travel2,512 kmRest days42 · 4.9Matches / 14d0 · 2
PAOK35%
Draw27%
Real Betis39%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.43
PAOK34%
Draw27%
Real Betis39%
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40
PAOK34%
Draw26%
Real Betis39%
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.46
PAOK28%
Draw26%
Real Betis46%
Expected goals 1.20 – 1.60
PAOK34%
Draw27%
Real Betis39%
Expected goals 1.27 – 1.37
Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Thessaloníki)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.47
  • Matches 85

Team strength

PAOKReal Betis
55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71
52 Current StrengthIn forecast 72
45 AttackIn forecast 79
55 DefenceIn forecast 59
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PAOK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PAOKReal Betis
2.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67
2.04 xGVia Att/Def 0.88
1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.95
83% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 50%
14.00 ShotsContext 11.17
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
46% On target shareContext 40%
10.67 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
76% Box shareContext 49%
16% ConversionContext 16%
1.25 OffsidesContext 2.67
12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.33
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67
2.83 BlocksContext 3.00
3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
73% Save rateContext 75%
49% PossessionIn forecast 53%
421 PassesContext 507
350 Accurate passesContext 446
83% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.92
11.83 FoulsContext 12.33
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33
1.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
— xGVia Att/Def 1.54
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
— Goals minus xGContext +0.36
90% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
15.20 ShotsContext 15.30
6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
40% On target shareContext 39%
10.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.60
69% Box shareContext 57%
15% ConversionContext 12%
2.13 OffsidesContext 2.50
7.20 Shots allowedContext 12.10
2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
2.50 BlocksContext 3.40
1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90
65% Save rateContext 67%
60% PossessionIn forecast 50%
500 PassesContext 442
419 Accurate passesContext 371
84% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.87
12.30 FoulsContext 11.70
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PAOK
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Real Betis
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel2,512 km1,330 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
PAOK Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,512 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km1,330 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 01 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PAOK Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
99A. Tsiftsis(G)
21A. Baba 5G. Michailidis 16T. Kędziora 3J. Kenny
8S. Meïté 27M. Ozdoev
11Taison 10D. Pelkas 14A. Živković
7G. Giakoumakis
+9 more reported missing outside this XI
Real Betis Confirmed XI
4-3-3
25Pau López(G)
12R. Rodríguez 16Valentín Gómez 3Diego Llorente 40Ángel Ortiz
8Pablo Fornals 6Sergi Altimira 18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
24Aitor Ruibal 9L. Ávila 52Pablo García
+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
PAOK Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • PAOK+0.5 pp
  • Draw+0.3 pp
  • Real Betis-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

PAOK · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.67
Conceded
0.33
Real Betis · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
1.67
Conceded
0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentPAOKReal Betis
Ludogorets D 3–3 A W 2–0 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

PAOKReal BetisForecast
Scored per game 2.171.83
Conceded per game 1.670.67
Match goals 3.832.50 2.78
Over 1.5 83%83%
Over 2.5 67%50% 53%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 67%50% 57%
Clean sheets 33%50%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
PAOKReal BetisForecast
Scored per game 2.171.90
Conceded per game 1.671.40
Match goals 3.833.30 2.78
Over 1.5 83%90%
Over 2.5 67%50% 53%
Over 3.5 67%40%
Both teams scored 67%60% 57%
Clean sheets 33%40%
Failed to score 17%10%
Games610

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PAOKReal BetisLeague
Corners
Corners won4.202.83
Corners conceded6.203.67
Match total10.406.508.96
Over 8.560% 3/533% 2/6
Over 9.560% 3/50% 0/6
Over 10.560% 3/50% 0/6
Cards
Cards2.002.50
Opponent cards2.501.67
Match total4.504.174.32
Over 3.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 4.550% 3/650% 3/6
PAOKReal BetisLeague
Corners
Corners won6.444.22
Corners conceded3.564.67
Match total10.008.898.96
Over 8.567% 6/967% 6/9
Over 9.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 10.544% 4/922% 2/9
Cards
Cards1.602.20
Opponent cards2.702.40
Match total4.304.604.32
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.28league 4.09
Red cards0.15league 0.20
Cards 5+44%league 42%
Fouls24.8league 24.4
Penalties0.47league 0.35
Home wins38%league 50%
PAOK1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W5 Oct 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

PAOK6 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Real Betis6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
1 1 76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
1 0-15
3 2 16-30
8 3 31-45
5 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 2 31-45
6 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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