Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris FC were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Paris FC. Paris FC had 7.1 days of rest, LE Havre 7 and had to travel 178 km.
Away travel178 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris FC43%
Draw28%
LE Havre29%
Paris FC39%
Draw27%
LE Havre34%
Paris FC42%
Draw29%
LE Havre29%
Paris FC36%
Draw29%
LE Havre35%
Paris FC43%
Draw28%
LE Havre29%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 136
Team strength
Paris FC
LE Havre
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
46
AttackIn forecast
20
38
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCLE Havre
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.77
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
69%
Scored inContext
50%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.23
ShotsContext
10.38
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.65
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.08
Shots in the boxContext
6.32
63%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.73
Shots allowedContext
12.12
3.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.04
3.79
BlocksContext
3.71
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
68%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
481
PassesContext
372
412
Accurate passesContext
302
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.85
FoulsContext
12.77
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.65
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
60%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.70
ShotsContext
9.10
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
36%
On target shareContext
29%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
60%
Box shareContext
54%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.30
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.20
BlocksContext
3.90
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
74%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
440
PassesContext
370
367
Accurate passesContext
296
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.30
FoulsContext
11.60
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,585 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
LE Havre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel178 km714 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,585 km | 714 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
17Adama Camara
23R. Matondo
33P. Lees-Melou
18M. Munetsi
27M. Simon
36C. Immobile
93N. Ikoné
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
27E. K. Vinette
15A. Seko
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
19L. Gourna-Douath
14R. Ndiaye
17S. Boufal
26S. Ebonog
45I. Soumaré
10F. Mambimbi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- LE Havre-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.83
LE Havre · Away
0.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-8
- Scored
- 0.42
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 AL 2–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Lyon | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Nice | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Toulouse | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Lens | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Marseille | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A | L 2–6 A |
| Angers | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Lille | L 2–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Monaco | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 27 of 75 · 1.08 per game | 26 of 75 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Paris FC wins1 draws0 LE Havre wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 7 Dec 2025LE Havre0–0Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 0.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 2.00 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 54% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 35% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 42% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 50% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Paris FC | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.15 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.42 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 8.79 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 2.35 | |
| Match total | 3.77 | 4.27 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 13/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Paris FC | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.10 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 136 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 3.71
Red cards0.24league 0.28
Cards 5+29%league 37%
Fouls23.0league 23.8
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins39%league 48%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D26 Apr 25H · Monaco1–11
- D9 Mar 25H · Saint Etienne1–12
- L12 Jan 25H · Lens1–22
- D13 Aug 23A · Montpellier2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC26 games · scored 29 · conceded 41
4
3
0-15
5
8
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
8
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
12
76-90
LE Havre26 games · scored 20 · conceded 32
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
9
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
7
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
