Paris FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Paris FC43.1%fair odds 2.32
Draw28.1%fair odds 3.55
LE Havre28.8%fair odds 3.48
Expected goals1.39 – 1.09total 2.47
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
LE Havre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Paris FC ↓ · LE Havre → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris FC goals, columns LE Havre goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.48
- 1–011.0%9.08
- 0–09.1%10.99
- 2–18.8%11.35
- 0–18.5%11.79
- 2–08.1%12.33
- 1–26.9%14.49
- 0–25.0%20.10
- 2–24.8%20.89
- 3–14.1%24.55
Winning margin
7.7%
Paris FC by 3+
fair 12.94
13.0%
Paris FC by 2
fair 7.67
22.3%
Paris FC by 1
fair 4.48
28.1%
Draw
fair 3.55
17.4%
LE Havre by 1
fair 5.76
8.0%
LE Havre by 2
fair 12.51
3.4%
LE Havre by 3+
fair 29.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Paris FC goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LE Havre goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 43.1% | 43.1% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 28.1% | 27.9% | +0.3 pp |
| LE Havre win | 28.8% | 29.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.9% | 46.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.4% | 51.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Paris FC | 1.39 | 1.41 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals LE Havre | 1.09 | 1.11 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Paris FC win43.1%2.32
- Draw28.1%3.55
- LE Havre win28.8%3.48
- Double chance Paris FC or draw71.2%1.40
- Double chance Paris FC or LE Havre71.9%1.39
- Double chance LE Havre or draw56.9%1.76
- Draw no bet Paris FC60.0%1.67
- Draw no bet LE Havre40.0%2.50
Goals
- Over 0.590.9%1.10
- Over 1.571.4%1.40
- Over 2.544.9%2.23
- Over 3.523.7%4.22
- Over 4.510.5%9.49
- Under 1.528.6%3.50
- Under 2.555.1%1.82
- Under 3.576.3%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes50.4%1.98
- No49.6%2.02
- Yes and over 2.537.0%2.70
- Paris FC win and yes18.5%5.42
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- LE Havre win and yes12.9%7.76
Team goals
- Paris FC over 0.575.0%1.33
- Paris FC over 1.540.4%2.48
- Paris FC over 2.516.3%6.12
- LE Havre over 0.566.3%1.51
- LE Havre over 1.529.6%3.38
- LE Havre over 2.59.7%10.32
- Paris FC clean sheet33.7%2.96
- LE Havre clean sheet25.0%4.00
- Paris FC win to nil24.6%4.06
- LE Havre win to nil15.9%6.30
Handicap
- Paris FC −1.520.8%4.82
- Paris FC −2.57.7%12.94
- LE Havre +1.579.2%1.26
- LE Havre +2.592.3%1.08
- LE Havre −1.511.4%8.76
- Paris FC +1.588.6%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored238
Favourite won55.9%
Avg chance given to result42.4%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right52.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 36 | 37.9% | 52.8% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.9% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.9% | 68.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 185 of 238 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5875 | 0.5782 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.7% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 53.0% | 54.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 185 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Rennes 1–2 Lille44·29·27
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- ✓Monaco 2–0 Stade Brestois 2958·25·18
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 238 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.