Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were clear favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 15). Paris FC had 6 days of rest, Marseille 6.8 and had to travel 661 km.
Away travel661 kmRest days6 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris FC17%
Draw22%
Marseille61%
Paris FC17%
Draw23%
Marseille60%
Paris FC17%
Draw23%
Marseille60%
Paris FC12%
Draw19%
Marseille69%
Paris FC17%
Draw23%
Marseille60%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 94
Team strength
Paris FC
Marseille
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
46
AttackIn forecast
48
38
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCMarseille
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.32
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
74%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
11.53
ShotsContext
13.89
3.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.74
29%
On target shareContext
41%
7.37
Shots in the boxContext
8.58
64%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.53
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.68
Shots allowedContext
9.37
3.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.29
BlocksContext
3.00
2.41
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
65%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
503
PassesContext
578
435
Accurate passesContext
519
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.00
FoulsContext
12.00
11.32
Fouls sufferedContext
10.26
1.74
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.21
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.40
2.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
23%
On target shareContext
41%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
61%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.63
10.10
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.78
BlocksContext
3.33
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
71%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
474
PassesContext
567
404
Accurate passesContext
503
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.40
FoulsContext
11.50
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km685 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel661 km1,311 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 6.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 661 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 685 km | 1,311 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
6Otávio
15T. Kolodziejczak
5M. Mbow
7Alimami Gory
27M. Simon
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
11J. Krasso
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
21N. Aguerd
5L. Balerdi
14Igor Paixão
27Q. Timber
23P. Højbjerg
22T. Weah
10M. Greenwood
11E. Nwaneri
97P. Aubameyang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Marseille+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Marseille · Away
1.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-4
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 A | W 6–2 H |
| Auxerre | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lille | L 2–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | W 5–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 20 of 54 · 1.11 per game | 35 of 54 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Paris FC wins0 draws1 Marseille wins
Goals per game2.00 – 5.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Marseille5–2Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 2.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 3.37 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 47% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 21% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Paris FC | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 3.72 | |
| Match total | 8.95 | 8.55 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 9/19 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.47 | 3.74 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 9/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 5/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Paris FC | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.30 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 3.60
Red cards0.31league 0.31
Cards 5+52%league 35%
Fouls22.3league 24.2
Penalties0.37league 0.42
Home wins43%league 49%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Marseille15 with this referee
Record10-3-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against6 · 2
Reds4
- W21 Nov 25A · Nice5–12
- W26 Sep 25A · Strasbourg2–14
- L15 Aug 25A · Rennes0–13
- W17 May 25H · Rennes4–23
- W6 Apr 25H · Toulouse3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC19 games · scored 24 · conceded 32
4
3
0-15
4
6
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
8
76-90
Marseille19 games · scored 44 · conceded 20
5
2
0-15
8
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
9
1
61-75
12
8
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
3
6
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
