Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Nice. Paris FC had 7.8 days of rest, Nice 6.9 and had to travel 686 km.
Away travel686 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Paris FC30%
Draw26%
Nice44%
Paris FC32%
Draw27%
Nice41%
Paris FC29%
Draw26%
Nice45%
Paris FC24%
Draw24%
Nice52%
Paris FC30%
Draw25%
Nice45%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 11
Team strength
Paris FC
Nice
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
46
AttackIn forecast
26
38
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCNice
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.87
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
70%
Scored inContext
74%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.91
ShotsContext
11.09
3.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
32%
On target shareContext
37%
6.91
Shots in the boxContext
7.05
63%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.72
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.74
Shots allowedContext
14.78
3.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.04
3.76
BlocksContext
4.22
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
66%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
497
PassesContext
417
429
Accurate passesContext
348
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.91
FoulsContext
12.52
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.04
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
50%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.70
ShotsContext
12.90
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
32%
On target shareContext
36%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
59%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.11
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
66%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
490
PassesContext
412
421
Accurate passesContext
337
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.80
FoulsContext
12.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nice
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel686 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 686 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,176 km | 586 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
28T. De Smet
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
17Adama Camara
18M. Munetsi
33P. Lees-Melou
27M. Simon
10I. Kebbal
93N. Ikoné
36C. Immobile
Nice
Confirmed XI
31M. Dupé(G)
26M. Bard
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
92J. Clauss
24C. Vanhoutte
8M. Sanson
20T. Louchet
10S. Diop
25M. Cho
90Kevin Carlos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Nice-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
0.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 2.00
Nice · Away
0.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-8
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 2.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A | L 1–5 H |
| Angers | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Lille | L 2–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Lyon | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 22 of 66 · 1.00 per game | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Paris FC wins1 draws0 Nice wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Sep 2025Nice1–1Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.87 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 3.17 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 65% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Paris FC | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.09 | 4.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 5.82 | |
| Match total | 9.18 | 10.59 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 82% 18/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 10/23 | 73% 16/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 6/23 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.69 | 4.26 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 12/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 8/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Paris FC | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 11.50 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.30 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.82league 3.68
Red cards0.27league 0.29
Cards 5+18%league 36%
Fouls22.1league 24.0
Penalties0.45league 0.40
Home wins45%league 49%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Nice3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W25 Jan 26A · Nantes4–13
- L7 Dec 25H · Angers0–12
- W17 May 25H · Stade Brestois 296–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC23 games · scored 27 · conceded 40
4
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
8
46-60
2
3
61-75
9
11
76-90
Nice23 games · scored 30 · conceded 43
4
8
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
9
31-45
6
7
46-60
3
7
61-75
3
9
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
