Paris FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Paris FC26.5%fair odds 3.78
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.90
Rennes47.9%fair odds 2.09
Expected goals1.17 – 1.64total 2.81
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rennes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Paris FC ↓ · Rennes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris FC goals, columns Rennes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.22
- 1–29.5%10.54
- 0–19.3%10.75
- 0–28.1%12.28
- 2–16.7%14.86
- 0–06.7%15.04
- 1–06.4%15.57
- 2–25.5%18.10
- 1–35.2%19.26
- 0–34.5%22.44
Winning margin
3.4%
Paris FC by 3+
fair 29.71
7.4%
Paris FC by 2
fair 13.47
15.7%
Paris FC by 1
fair 6.38
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.90
22.3%
Rennes by 1
fair 4.48
14.7%
Rennes by 2
fair 6.78
10.8%
Rennes by 3+
fair 9.27
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Paris FC goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Rennes goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 26.5% | 26.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Rennes win | 47.9% | 47.9% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 52.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 55.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Paris FC | 1.17 | 1.14 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Rennes | 1.64 | 1.62 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Paris FC win26.5%3.78
- Draw25.7%3.90
- Rennes win47.9%2.09
- Double chance Paris FC or draw52.1%1.92
- Double chance Paris FC or Rennes74.3%1.35
- Double chance Rennes or draw73.5%1.36
- Draw no bet Paris FC35.6%2.81
- Draw no bet Rennes64.4%1.55
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.2%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.23
- Over 4.515.3%6.52
- Under 1.522.4%4.47
- Under 2.546.8%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- Paris FC win and yes13.8%7.27
- Draw and yes19.0%5.26
- Rennes win and yes23.3%4.29
Team goals
- Paris FC over 0.568.8%1.45
- Paris FC over 1.532.5%3.08
- Paris FC over 2.511.3%8.85
- Rennes over 0.580.6%1.24
- Rennes over 1.548.9%2.05
- Rennes over 2.522.8%4.39
- Paris FC clean sheet19.4%5.17
- Rennes clean sheet31.2%3.21
- Paris FC win to nil12.7%7.87
- Rennes win to nil24.5%4.07
Handicap
- Paris FC −1.510.8%9.27
- Paris FC −2.53.4%29.71
- Rennes +1.589.2%1.12
- Rennes +2.596.6%1.03
- Rennes −1.525.5%3.92
- Paris FC +1.574.5%1.34
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won53.5%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.570
Over 2.5 called right56.6%
BTTS called right50.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 30 | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 53.9% | 47.8% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 65.1% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 84.7% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 72 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6200 | 0.5987 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.4% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 44.4% | 47.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 72 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.