Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Paris FC. Paris FC had 6.1 days of rest, Rennes 5.2 and had to travel 308 km.
Away travel308 kmRest days6.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 3
Paris FC26%
Draw26%
Rennes48%
Paris FC27%
Draw26%
Rennes47%
Paris FC27%
Draw26%
Rennes47%
Paris FC21%
Draw24%
Rennes56%
Paris FC26%
Draw26%
Rennes48%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Paris FC
Rennes
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
46
AttackIn forecast
63
38
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCRennes
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
91%
Scored inContext
82%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.64
ShotsContext
12.82
4.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.18
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
66%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.82
Shots allowedContext
13.36
3.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.70
BlocksContext
4.20
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
62%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
516
PassesContext
456
450
Accurate passesContext
391
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.18
FoulsContext
12.00
11.18
Fouls sufferedContext
12.55
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.27
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.20
ShotsContext
12.90
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
36%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
69%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.78
BlocksContext
3.56
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
63%
Save rateContext
61%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
509
PassesContext
474
442
Accurate passesContext
409
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.30
FoulsContext
12.40
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,378 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel308 km1,112 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,378 km | 1,112 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
31Samir Sophian Chergui
33P. Lees-Melou
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
27M. Simon
11J. Krasso
10I. Kebbal
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
97J. Jacquet
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
26Q. Merlin
39M. Meïté
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rennes+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Rennes · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | D 3–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Nantes | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | W 4–1 H |
| Marseille | L 2–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 24 · 0.63 per game | 12 of 24 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 3.45 | 3.18 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 73% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 64% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 73% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Paris FC | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.09 | 9.00 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.64 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 4.91 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Paris FC | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.60 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.80 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.83
Red cards0.00league 0.30
Cards 5+20%league 37%
Fouls29.6league 24.3
Penalties0.20league 0.47
Home wins60%league 52%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
RennesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC11 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Rennes11 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
