Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 13). Paris FC had 6.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 6.9 and had to travel 397 km.
Away travel397 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris FC21%
Draw24%
Strasbourg55%
Paris FC21%
Draw24%
Strasbourg55%
Paris FC20%
Draw24%
Strasbourg55%
Paris FC16%
Draw22%
Strasbourg63%
Paris FC21%
Draw24%
Strasbourg55%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 102
Team strength
Paris FC
Strasbourg
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
46
AttackIn forecast
40
38
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCStrasbourg
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
75%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.25
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
43%
On target shareContext
40%
8.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
64%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
8.25
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
5.67
BlocksContext
3.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
56%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
485
PassesContext
501
423
Accurate passesContext
445
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.00
FoulsContext
11.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
75%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.00
ShotsContext
12.10
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
43%
On target shareContext
38%
8.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
64%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
5.67
BlocksContext
4.57
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
56%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
485
PassesContext
508
423
Accurate passesContext
451
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.00
FoulsContext
11.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,010 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Strasbourg
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel397 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 397 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,010 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
31Samir Sophian Chergui
14H. Traoré
33P. Lees-Melou
27M. Simon
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
9W. Geubbels
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
23M. Sarr
6I. Doukouré
42A. Ouattara
20B. Godo
32V. Barco
29S. El Mourabet
7Diego Moreira
16K. Páez
9J. Panichelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Strasbourg-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Strasbourg · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.25 | 10.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 4.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.40 | 10.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 4.10 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.50
Red cards0.25league 0.38
Cards 5+48%league 35%
Fouls22.3league 23.8
Penalties0.32league 0.53
Home wins52%league 68%
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Aug 25A · Angers0–11
Strasbourg6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W12 May 24H · Metz2–12
- W18 Feb 23H · Angers2–13
- D11 Jan 23H · Lens2–21
- L6 Aug 22H · Monaco1–20
- W3 Apr 22H · Lens1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC4 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Strasbourg4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Paris FC4 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
