Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Toulouse were slight favourites.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 15). Paris FC usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris FC had 6.2 days of rest, Toulouse 7.1 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days6.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Paris FC28%
Draw27%
Toulouse46%
Paris FC27%
Draw26%
Toulouse47%
Paris FC28%
Draw27%
Toulouse45%
Paris FC22%
Draw25%
Toulouse53%
Paris FC27%
Draw26%
Toulouse47%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 76
Team strength
Paris FC
Toulouse
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
46
AttackIn forecast
45
38
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCToulouse
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
73%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.40
ShotsContext
12.27
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
31%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.43
67%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.56
11.07
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.36
3.50
BlocksContext
3.79
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
67%
Save rateContext
61%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
504
PassesContext
341
436
Accurate passesContext
276
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.13
FoulsContext
14.07
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.27
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
13.10
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
22%
On target shareContext
30%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
68%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.13
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.20
Shots allowedContext
9.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
2.90
BlocksContext
3.11
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
71%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
499
PassesContext
344
428
Accurate passesContext
276
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.10
FoulsContext
14.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km356 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel588 km639 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 356 km | 639 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
2T. Ollila
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
14H. Traoré
27M. Simon
17Adama Camara
4V. Marchetti
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
93N. Ikoné
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
45A. Vossah
23C. Cásseres
19D. Sidibé
10G. Gboho
11S. Hidalgo
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Toulouse+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.71
Toulouse · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lille | L 2–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Monaco | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lyon | D 3–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Nantes | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Marseille | L 2–5 A | D 2–2 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 16 of 42 · 1.14 per game | 20 of 42 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.67 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 47% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 47% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Paris FC | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.07 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.67 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.87 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Paris FC | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.90 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.50 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.69
Red cards0.26league 0.32
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls24.8league 24.1
Penalties0.39league 0.47
Home wins39%league 51%
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W14 Sep 25A · Stade Brestois 292–13
Toulouse4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 May 25H · Lens1–12
- D25 Aug 24A · Nice1–12
- L2 May 23H · Lens0–11
- L4 Feb 23A · Paris Saint Germain1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC15 games · scored 21 · conceded 26
3
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
Toulouse15 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
