Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans – 10 Oct 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 Sat, Oct 10 · 19:45 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 6th · 8 pts · 5 played DDLWW

3–1Full time

Le Mans 10th · 6 pts · 5 played DLDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Le Mans. Paris Saint Germain were without Ferran Torres and W. Zaïre-Emery. Le Mans were without A. Bourabaa. Paris Saint Germain had 20 days of rest, Le Mans 21 and had to travel 184 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel184 kmRest days20 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0

Paris Saint Germain86%

Draw9%

Le Mans5%

Expected goals 3.39 – 0.76

Paris Saint Germain83%

Draw11%

Le Mans5%

Expected goals 2.89 – 0.62

Paris Saint Germain87%

Draw9%

Le Mans5%

Expected goals 3.43 – 0.74

Paris Saint Germain81%

Draw12%

Le Mans7%

Expected goals 3.02 – 0.85

Paris Saint Germain84%

Draw10%

Le Mans5%

Expected goals 3.20 – 0.74

Over 2.5 78% Both score 51% Likeliest score 3–0

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

14°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 64

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Le Mans

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 26

91 AttackIn forecast 27

83 DefenceIn forecast 21

72 Form indexContext 33

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Le Mans

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Le Mans

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.69

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

100% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

20.80 ShotsContext 9.80

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

34% On target shareContext 47%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

51% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 18%

3.75 OffsidesContext 1.75

9.80 Shots allowedContext 16.20

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.75 BlocksContext 3.40

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

85% Save rateContext 60%

66% PossessionIn forecast 46%

715 PassesContext 405

644 Accurate passesContext 321

90% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.76

6.20 FoulsContext 14.40

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.35 xGVia Att/Def —

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.55 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

20.10 ShotsContext 9.80

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

32% On target shareContext 47%

11.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

57% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 18%

3.13 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.80 Shots allowedContext 16.20

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.25 BlocksContext 3.40

4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

84% Save rateContext 60%

67% PossessionIn forecast 46%

723 PassesContext 405

652 Accurate passesContext 321

90% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.10 Team ratingContext 6.76

6.60 FoulsContext 14.40

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 5 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain DLWWW

Rest20 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 72 · 10 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts
W9 SepH · Slovan Bratislava6–12.7 xPts
L4 SepH · Monaco1–22.2 xPts
D28 AugA · Lille2–21.8 xPts

Le Mans DLDDW

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel184 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 6 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

W19 SepH · Lorient2–11.5 xPts
D13 SepH · Lens2–20.9 xPts
D5 SepA · Nice1–11.2 xPts
L30 AugA · Rennes2–30.7 xPts
D22 AugH · Stade Brestois 292–21.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Le Mans
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Sep	21Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	184 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 2A. Hakimi

27Dro Fernández 4Beraldo 87João Neves

22M. Godts 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Le Mans Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

98N. Kocik(G)

5H. Voyer 17S. Yohou 15N. Boissé

8A. Lauray

22L. Calodat 10J. Vercruysse 29Lucas Bretelle 26R. Bamba

14L. Mafouta 13M. Diallo

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.13 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −36.8% · Defence line −19.4% of weighted minutes

ATT Ferran Torres Core 7.91 Att −17.6%
MID W. Zaïre-Emery Starter 6.81 Att −8.0% Def −7.4%
DEF Nuno Mendes Starter 7.09 Def −10.1%
ATT O. Dembélé Starter 7.30 Att −9.1%
MID S. Mayulu Rotation 6.73 Att −2.1% Def −1.9%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Longoni

Le Mans Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals

Attack line −19.0% · Defence line −13.7% of weighted minutes

MID A. Bourabaa Core 7.25 Att −18.6% Def −9.0%
DEF L. Buadés Rotation 6.75 Def −2.7%
DEF D. Sidibé Rotation 6.80 Def −2.0%
ATT E. Colas Depth 6.60 Att −0.4%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): T. Eyoum, E. Quarshie, M. Rossignol

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain-0.5 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Le Mans+0.2 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Le Mans · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	Le Mans
Stade Brestois 29	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Rennes	D 2–2 A	L 2–3 A
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Le Mans	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.80
Match goals	3.00	3.60	4.15
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	78%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	80%	100%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	5	5

	Paris Saint Germain	Le Mans	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	1.80
Match goals	3.20	3.60	4.15
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	78%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	100%	51%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Le Mans	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	2.60
Corners conceded	3.00	7.00
Match total	7.50	9.60	9.98
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.40
Match total	3.40	4.60	3.27
Over 3.5	40% 2/5	80% 4/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	60% 3/5

	Paris Saint Germain	Le Mans	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	2.60
Corners conceded	3.14	7.00
Match total	9.14	9.60	9.98
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.20
Opponent cards	1.60	2.40
Match total	2.60	4.60	3.27
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	80% 4/5
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 3/5

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.08league 3.13

Red cards0.36league 0.15

Cards 5+47%league 26%

Fouls26.5league 24.1

Penalties0.38league 0.28

Home wins44%league 43%

Paris Saint Germain5 with this referee

Record5-0-0 Cards · opp.1.4 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

W23 Jan 26A · Auxerre1–01
W22 Nov 25H · LE Havre3–02
W10 May 25A · Montpellier4–11
W19 Apr 25H · LE Havre2–10
W8 Mar 25A · Rennes4–13

Le Mans

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.