Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Paris Saint Germain85.9%fair odds 1.16
Draw9.6%fair odds 10.47
Le Mans4.6%fair odds 21.88
Expected goals3.39 – 0.76total 4.15
Likeliest score3–010.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Le Mans
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Paris Saint Germain ↓ · Le Mans → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris Saint Germain goals, columns Le Mans goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–010.3%9.72
- 2–09.1%10.99
- 4–08.7%11.47
- 3–17.8%12.86
- 2–16.9%14.53
- 4–16.6%15.18
- 5–05.9%16.93
- 1–05.2%19.39
- 5–14.5%22.39
- 1–14.3%23.38
Winning margin
50.3%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 1.99
19.8%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 5.04
15.7%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 6.37
9.6%
Draw
fair 10.47
3.3%
Le Mans by 1
fair 30.00
1.0%
Le Mans by 2
fair 101.26
0.2%
Le Mans by 3+
fair 400.14
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
6%1
14%2
19%3
20%4
40%5+
Paris Saint Germain goals
3%0
11%1
19%2
22%3
44%4+
Le Mans goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain win | 85.9% | 84.2% | +1.7 pp |
| Draw | 9.6% | 10.6% | -1.1 pp |
| Le Mans win | 4.6% | 5.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 78.2% | 75.3% | +3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.5% | 50.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 3.39 | 3.20 | +0.19 |
| Expected goals Le Mans | 0.76 | 0.74 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Paris Saint Germain win85.9%1.16
- Draw9.6%10.47
- Le Mans win4.6%21.88
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw95.4%1.05
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or Le Mans90.4%1.11
- Double chance Le Mans or draw14.1%7.08
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain94.9%1.05
- Draw no bet Le Mans5.1%19.79
Goals
- Over 0.598.2%1.02
- Over 1.592.1%1.09
- Over 2.578.2%1.28
- Over 3.559.4%1.68
- Over 4.539.9%2.51
- Under 1.57.9%12.60
- Under 2.521.8%4.59
- Under 3.540.6%2.46
Both teams to score
- Yes51.5%1.94
- No48.5%2.06
- Yes and over 2.547.2%2.12
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes40.7%2.46
- Draw and yes7.8%12.90
- Le Mans win and yes3.0%33.38
Team goals
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.596.6%1.03
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.585.2%1.17
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.565.8%1.52
- Le Mans over 0.553.1%1.88
- Le Mans over 1.517.6%5.70
- Le Mans over 2.54.1%24.20
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet46.9%2.13
- Le Mans clean sheet3.4%29.62
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil45.1%2.21
- Le Mans win to nil1.6%63.47
Handicap
- Paris Saint Germain −1.570.2%1.42
- Paris Saint Germain −2.550.3%1.99
- Le Mans +1.529.8%3.35
- Le Mans +2.549.7%2.01
- Le Mans −1.51.2%80.81
- Paris Saint Germain +1.598.8%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored47
Favourite won55.3%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.620
Over 2.5 called right61.7%
BTTS called right59.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 23 | 45.2% | 65.2% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.4% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.9% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.9% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 38 of 47 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6267 | 0.6167 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.9% | 39.0% |
| Favourite won | 55.3% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 38 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Lille 1–0 LE Havre68·19·14
- ✓Lens 2–1 Lyon47·22·31
- ✓Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint Germain18·19·63
- ✗Nice 2–1 Lille22·23·55
- ✗Auxerre 2–1 Stade Brestois 2935·24·41
- ✓Le Mans 2–1 Lorient41·25·34
- ✓Toulouse 3–2 LE Havre54·23·23
- ✓Lyon 4–0 Rennes46·23·31
- ✓Angers 2–0 Estac Troyes53·24·23
- ✓Paris FC 2–1 Strasbourg42·24·34
Pre-match forecasts only. 2 of 47 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.