Paris Saint Germain vs Lens – 14 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 14 · 16:15 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

2–0Full time

Lens 6th · 6 pts · 3 played LWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 45). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 14.8 days of rest, Lens 15.9 and had to travel 179 km.

Away travel179 kmRest days14.8 · 15.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Paris Saint Germain78%

Draw14%

Lens7%

Expected goals 2.73 – 0.75

Paris Saint Germain76%

Draw16%

Lens8%

Expected goals 2.51 – 0.71

Paris Saint Germain78%

Draw14%

Lens7%

Expected goals 2.73 – 0.75

Paris Saint Germain72%

Draw17%

Lens11%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.84

Paris Saint Germain76%

Draw16%

Lens8%

Expected goals 2.51 – 0.71

Over 2.5 67% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 84

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Lens

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

91 AttackIn forecast 63

83 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Lens

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 2.01

0.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

+0.77 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

100% Scored inContext 67%

67% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.33 ShotsContext 17.67

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

31% On target shareContext 34%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 13.33

58% Box shareContext 71%

15% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 3.50

7.33 Shots allowedContext 12.33

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

— BlocksContext 3.67

— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

50% Save rateContext 73%

77% PossessionIn forecast 55%

861 PassesContext 470

801 Accurate passesContext 401

93% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.15 Team ratingContext 7.10

6.67 FoulsContext 12.00

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

0.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.70 ShotsContext 17.60

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

38% On target shareContext 34%

11.30 Shots in the boxContext 12.20

65% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.86

8.50 Shots allowedContext 10.70

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.38 BlocksContext 2.80

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

74% Save rateContext 73%

66% PossessionIn forecast 55%

643 PassesContext 494

585 Accurate passesContext 425

91% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.19 Team ratingContext 7.13

10.00 FoulsContext 11.80

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lens

Rest15.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel179 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Aug	15.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	179 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30L. Chevalier(G)

21L. Hernández 4Beraldo 6I. Zabarnyi 2A. Hakimi

19K. Lee 17Vitinha 33W. Zaïre-Emery

29B. Barcola 9Gonçalo Ramos 7K. Kvaratskhelia

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 6S. Baidoo 24J. Gradit

14M. Udol 28A. Thomasson 8M. Sangaré 2R. Aguilar

29M. Guilavogui 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Absences are shown before kick-off

Lens Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lens+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Lens · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Paris Saint Germain wins2 draws1 Lens wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

18 Jan 2025Lens1–2Paris Saint Germain
2 Nov 2024Paris Saint Germain1–0Lens
14 Jan 2024Lens0–2Paris Saint Germain
26 Aug 2023Paris Saint Germain3–1Lens
15 Apr 2023Paris Saint Germain3–1Lens
1 Jan 2023Lens3–1Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	1.67
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	3.67	2.67	3.47
Over 1.5	33%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	67%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	50%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

	Paris Saint Germain	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	1.67
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	3.67	2.67	3.47
Over 1.5	33%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	67%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	50%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	13.50
Corners conceded	3.50	4.50
Match total	10.50	18.00	10.81
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Cards
Cards	0.33	1.33
Opponent cards	0.67	3.33
Match total	1.00	4.66	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/3	100% 3/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	67% 2/3

	Paris Saint Germain	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	7.00
Corners conceded	4.00	3.89
Match total	7.88	10.89	10.81
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.20
Opponent cards	1.70	2.30
Match total	3.00	4.50	4.00
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 3.58

Red cards0.30league 0.39

Cards 5+52%league 42%

Fouls22.6league 23.6

Penalties0.36league 0.48

Home wins44%league 68%

Paris Saint Germain9 with this referee

Record5-4-0 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D22 Apr 25A · Nantes1–10
W18 Jan 25A · Lens2–12
D6 Dec 24A · Auxerre0–01
D21 Sep 24A · Reims1–11
W8 Apr 23A · Nice2–00

Lens8 with this referee

Record5-0-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 4 Reds4

L1 Mar 25H · LE Havre3–42
L18 Jan 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–22
W25 Aug 24H · Stade Brestois 292–03
W3 May 24H · Lorient2–01
L13 Aug 23A · Stade Brestois 292–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.