Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 39 pts · 17 played
WLWWW
3–0Full time
Lille
4th · 32 pts · 17 played
WWWWL
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 57). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 12 days of rest, Lille 13 and had to travel 205 km.
Away travel205 kmRest days12 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris Saint Germain72%
Draw17%
Lille10%
Paris Saint Germain70%
Draw19%
Lille11%
Paris Saint Germain72%
Draw17%
Lille10%
Paris Saint Germain65%
Draw20%
Lille14%
Paris Saint Germain70%
Draw19%
Lille11%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 100
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainLille
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
91
AttackIn forecast
42
83
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainLille
2.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.94
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
88%
Scored inContext
71%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
17.12
ShotsContext
13.94
6.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
38%
On target shareContext
34%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
58%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.62
8.41
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
2.77
BlocksContext
2.75
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
70%
Save rateContext
67%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
731
PassesContext
473
670
Accurate passesContext
402
92%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.76
FoulsContext
11.88
8.53
Fouls sufferedContext
13.06
1.12
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.29
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.80
ShotsContext
10.50
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
35%
On target shareContext
39%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
63%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.17
8.40
Shots allowedContext
9.40
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.11
BlocksContext
3.11
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
66%
Save rateContext
73%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
673
PassesContext
487
608
Accurate passesContext
417
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.84
8.70
FoulsContext
10.00
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.60
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest12 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel205 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 205 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
25Nuno Mendes
51W. Pacho
5Marquinhos
33W. Zaïre-Emery
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
24S. Mayulu
7K. Kvaratskhelia
10M. Dembélé
14D. Doué
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
32A. Bouaddi
6N. Bentaleb
17N. Mukau
10H. Haraldsson
9O. Giroud
8E. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lille+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-0
- Scored
- 2.38
- Conceded
- 0.50
Lille · Away
1.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-3
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 A | W 6–1 H |
| Rennes | W 5–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lyon | W 3–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 7–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Strasbourg | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | W 4–3 A |
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Toulouse | W 6–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 38 of 48 · 2.38 per game | 31 of 48 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 Paris Saint Germain wins2 draws0 Lille wins
Goals per game3.33 – 1.22
Over 2.578%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Oct 2025Lille1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 1 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain4–1Lille
- 1 Sep 2024Lille1–3Paris Saint Germain
- 10 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Lille
- 17 Dec 2023Lille1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 19 Feb 2023Paris Saint Germain4–3Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.18 | 1.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 3.24 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 41% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 41% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 29% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.60 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.35 | |
| Match total | 8.73 | 10.29 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 4/15 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 2/15 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.12 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 2.94 | 4.47 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% 4/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 12% 2/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.40 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 100 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.65
Red cards0.27league 0.34
Cards 5+33%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 24.1
Penalties0.34league 0.46
Home wins40%league 50%
Paris Saint Germain12 with this referee
Record6-3-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L22 Sep 25A · Marseille0–10
- D6 Oct 24A · Nice1–12
- W17 Feb 24A · Nantes2–00
- W14 Jan 24A · Lens2–01
- W9 Dec 23H · Nantes2–11
Lille13 with this referee
Record6-3-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W5 Dec 25H · Marseille1–00
- W2 Nov 25H · Angers1–01
- W12 Apr 25A · Toulouse2–12
- D1 Nov 24H · Lyon1–13
- D21 Sep 24H · Strasbourg3–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain17 games · scored 37 · conceded 15
5
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
Lille17 games · scored 33 · conceded 22
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
5
61-75
19
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 23 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
