Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 28 · 19:45 Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Lorient 7th · 11 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel441 kmRest days3 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Paris Saint Germain—%
Draw—%
Lorient—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris Saint Germain and Lorient. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Paris Saint GermainLorient
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
91 AttackIn forecast 28
83 DefenceIn forecast 45
96 Form indexContext 69
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint GermainLorient
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
2.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.16
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08
-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
100% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 57%
20.57 ShotsContext 9.86
7.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43
35% On target shareContext 35%
11.71 Shots in the boxContext 6.71
56% Box shareContext 70%
10% ConversionContext 10%
3.20 OffsidesContext 1.25
10.86 Shots allowedContext 13.86
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71
2.17 BlocksContext 4.71
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
83% Save rateContext 83%
68% PossessionIn forecast 46%
708 PassesContext 482
637 Accurate passesContext 408
90% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.86
5.71 FoulsContext 9.29
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 15.14
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.14
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.24
1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
100% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
21.50 ShotsContext 9.80
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40
36% On target shareContext 35%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.10
56% Box shareContext 65%
12% ConversionContext 13%
3.33 OffsidesContext 1.43
11.90 Shots allowedContext 13.60
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
3.22 BlocksContext 4.78
4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
78% Save rateContext 81%
67% PossessionIn forecast 46%
702 PassesContext 458
632 Accurate passesContext 390
90% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.83
7.00 FoulsContext 9.10
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,372 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts
Lorient
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel441 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Monaco1–01.2 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Paris FC1–01.4 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Le Mans1–21.3 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Toulouse2–21.6 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Lens1–00.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris Saint Germain Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km441 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,372 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.86.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche
Lorient Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Monaco (H) 1–0, 18 Oct
38Y. Mvogo(G)
95S. Touré 3M. Talbi 32N. Adjei
43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 8Noah Cadiou 20D. Sylla
33Gabin Bernardeau 17J. Makengo
18I. Baldé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lorient Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50
Lorient · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentParis Saint GermainLorient
Le Mans W 3–1 H L 1–2 A
Monaco L 1–2 H W 1–0 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Paris Saint Germain wins4 draws1 Lorient wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.25 Over 2.563% Both scored88% Clean sheets13% · 13%
  • 2 May 2026Paris Saint Germain2–2Lorient
  • 29 Oct 2025Lorient1–1Paris Saint Germain
  • 24 Apr 2024Lorient1–4Paris Saint Germain
  • 12 Aug 2023Paris Saint Germain0–0Lorient
  • 30 Apr 2023Paris Saint Germain1–3Lorient
  • 6 Nov 2022Lorient1–2Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Paris Saint GermainLorientForecast
Scored per game 2.001.00
Conceded per game 1.290.86
Match goals 3.291.86
Over 1.5 86%43%
Over 2.5 86%43%
Over 3.5 57%14%
Both teams scored 86%43%
Clean sheets 14%57%
Failed to score 0%14%
Games77
Paris Saint GermainLorientForecast
Scored per game 2.501.30
Conceded per game 1.401.00
Match goals 3.902.30
Over 1.5 90%60%
Over 2.5 90%50%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 90%40%
Clean sheets 10%50%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Paris Saint GermainLorientLeague
Corners
Corners won4.753.00
Corners conceded3.255.17
Match total8.008.179.63
Over 8.550% 2/433% 2/6
Over 9.525% 1/433% 2/6
Over 10.50% 0/433% 2/6
Cards
Cards1.001.14
Opponent cards2.432.29
Match total3.433.433.47
Over 3.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 4.529% 2/743% 3/7
Paris Saint GermainLorientLeague
Corners
Corners won5.573.11
Corners conceded4.145.67
Match total9.718.789.63
Over 8.571% 5/744% 4/9
Over 9.543% 3/744% 4/9
Over 10.529% 2/744% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.001.30
Opponent cards2.302.00
Match total3.303.303.47
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Lorient7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Stade Brestois 29 Paris FC Nov 2719:45 Angers Lens Nov 2816:15 Nice Estac Troyes Nov 2819:45 Paris Saint Germain Lorient Nov 2819:45 LE Havre Strasbourg Nov 2819:45 Le Mans Lille Nov 2819:45 Auxerre Marseille Nov 2914:00 Toulouse Rennes Nov 2916:15 Lyon Monaco Nov 2919:45