Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC

Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 Fri, Nov 27 · 19:45 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 10th · 9 pts · 7 played WLLWD

VS— Compare

Paris FC 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel505 kmRest days6 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Stade Brestois 29—%

Draw—%

Paris FC—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Brest)

Forecast from 12 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Paris FC

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

47 AttackIn forecast 46

36 DefenceIn forecast 38

49 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Paris FC

1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.55 xGVia Att/Def 2.11

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.69 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

86% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 43%

17.14 ShotsContext 14.43

5.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 35%

11.29 Shots in the boxContext 9.43

63% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.71

11.71 Shots allowedContext 9.57

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.57 BlocksContext 3.00

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

76% Save rateContext 71%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

408 PassesContext 575

333 Accurate passesContext 508

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.14 FoulsContext 13.71

13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.57

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.10 ShotsContext 14.40

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

33% On target shareContext 35%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

64% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.10

12.30 Shots allowedContext 9.90

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.30 BlocksContext 2.67

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

71% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

414 PassesContext 524

340 Accurate passesContext 457

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.80 FoulsContext 12.40

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29 WLLWD

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,802 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected

D17 OctA · Lille1–11.0 xPts
W10 OctH · Angers5–11.9 xPts
L20 SepA · Auxerre1–21.5 xPts
L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts

Paris FC WDWLW

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel505 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 21 Nov	5.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	505 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,802 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lille (A) 1–1, 17 Oct

1E. Selvik(G)

2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 17M. Baldé

19L. Ajorque

Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct

1K. Trapp(G)

14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez

15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Paris FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.33

Paris FC · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Stade Brestois 29 wins0 draws2 Paris FC wins

Goals per game0.50 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

3 May 2026Paris FC4–0Stade Brestois 29
14 Sep 2025Stade Brestois 291–2Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris FC
Scored per game	1.86	1.71
Conceded per game	1.43	1.00
Match goals	3.29	2.71
Over 1.5	86%	57%
Over 2.5	71%	57%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	86%	43%
Clean sheets	0%	43%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris FC
Scored per game	1.50	1.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	2.90	2.90
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	70%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	4.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.17
Match total	8.86	8.17	9.63
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.29
Opponent cards	1.71	1.57
Match total	3.00	3.86	3.47
Over 3.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.00
Corners conceded	4.60	4.11
Match total	9.30	8.11	9.63
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	1.20
Match total	2.40	3.20	3.47
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.