Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain had 16 days of rest, Lyon 7 and had to travel 395 km.
Away travel395 kmRest days16 · 7Matches / 14d0 · 1
Paris Saint Germain83%
Draw12%
Lyon5%
Paris Saint Germain71%
Draw18%
Lyon11%
Paris Saint Germain83%
Draw12%
Lyon5%
Paris Saint Germain77%
Draw15%
Lyon8%
Paris Saint Germain81%
Draw13%
Lyon6%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 105
Team strength
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
91
AttackIn forecast
55
83
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainLyon
2.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
93%
Scored inContext
83%
52%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
17.19
ShotsContext
11.66
6.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.34
38%
On target shareContext
37%
10.81
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
62%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.07
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
2.68
BlocksContext
3.92
2.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
69%
Save rateContext
78%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
713
PassesContext
470
651
Accurate passesContext
404
91%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.48
FoulsContext
13.34
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
100%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.60
ShotsContext
11.10
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
43%
On target shareContext
32%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
65%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.30
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
3.38
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
80%
Save rateContext
80%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
657
PassesContext
496
592
Accurate passesContext
431
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.86
8.80
FoulsContext
12.40
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel395 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 395 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
2A. Hakimi
17Vitinha
4Beraldo
24S. Mayulu
29B. Barcola
9Gonçalo Ramos
14D. Doué
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
21R. Kluivert
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
16Abner
5O. Mangala
23T. Morton
44Khalis Merah
17Afonso Moreira
9Endrick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lyon-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-1
- Scored
- 2.62
- Conceded
- 0.62
Lyon · Away
1.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | W 3–1 HW 6–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nice | W 4–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Monaco | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 AW 5–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Marseille | W 5–0 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lille | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 60 of 78 · 2.31 per game | 51 of 84 · 1.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws1 Lyon wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.11
Over 2.567%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 9 Nov 2025Lyon2–3Paris Saint Germain
- 23 Feb 2025Lyon2–3Paris Saint Germain
- 15 Dec 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Lyon
- 21 Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain4–1Lyon
- 3 Sep 2023Lyon1–4Paris Saint Germain
- 2 Apr 2023Paris Saint Germain0–1Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.26 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.48 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 48% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 45% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 52% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 17% | |
| Games | 27 | 29 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.28 | 5.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.08 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 8.36 | 9.67 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 11/25 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 24% 6/25 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 3/25 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.93 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.41 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.58 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% 6/27 | 76% 22/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 7% 2/27 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 8.25 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 4.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 105 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.49league 3.65
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+34%league 35%
Fouls23.9league 23.8
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins41%league 47%
Paris Saint Germain13 with this referee
Record7-3-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W16 Jan 26H · Lille3–00
- L22 Sep 25A · Marseille0–10
- D6 Oct 24A · Nice1–12
- W17 Feb 24A · Nantes2–00
- W14 Jan 24A · Lens2–01
Lyon16 with this referee
Record5-3-8
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 3
Reds2
- L1 Mar 26A · Marseille2–32
- W3 Jan 26A · Monaco3–13
- L18 Oct 25A · Nice2–32
- L2 Feb 25A · Marseille2–31
- D1 Nov 24A · Lille1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain27 games · scored 61 · conceded 23
8
1
0-15
6
5
16-30
13
4
31-45
8
5
46-60
11
3
61-75
15
5
76-90
Lyon29 games · scored 43 · conceded 29
5
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
10
6
31-45
9
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
9
12
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 26 · conceded 8
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
