Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 57 pts · 24 played
WWLWW
1–3Full time
Monaco
7th · 37 pts · 24 played
WDWWW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monaco. Paris Saint Germain had 6 days of rest, Monaco 6.1 and had to travel 689 km.
Away travel689 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris Saint Germain72%
Draw17%
Monaco11%
Paris Saint Germain71%
Draw18%
Monaco11%
Paris Saint Germain72%
Draw17%
Monaco11%
Paris Saint Germain65%
Draw20%
Monaco15%
Paris Saint Germain70%
Draw19%
Monaco12%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 72
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
87
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
91
AttackIn forecast
45
83
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
2.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
92%
Scored inContext
75%
54%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
17.17
ShotsContext
11.83
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
34%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.09
61%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.94
8.17
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.48
2.75
BlocksContext
3.54
2.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
71%
Save rateContext
65%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
709
PassesContext
472
649
Accurate passesContext
398
91%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.79
FoulsContext
12.79
9.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
0.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
20.60
ShotsContext
11.30
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
32%
On target shareContext
39%
13.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
66%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.14
8.40
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
2.89
BlocksContext
4.70
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
59%
Save rateContext
64%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
671
PassesContext
424
613
Accurate passesContext
352
91%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.30
FoulsContext
12.40
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
0.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km356 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel689 km1,643 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 689 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 356 km | 1,643 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
25Nuno Mendes
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
2A. Hakimi
27Dro Fernández
17Vitinha
33W. Zaïre-Emery
7K. Kvaratskhelia
29B. Barcola
14D. Doué
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
12Caio Henrique
15M. Camara
23Aladji Bamba
2Vanderson
28M. Coulibaly
9F. Balogun
11M. Akliouche
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Monaco+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-0
- Scored
- 2.73
- Conceded
- 0.36
Monaco · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 5–2 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 AW 5–0 H | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Marseille | W 5–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H | W 3–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lille | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lyon | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Toulouse | W 6–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Points | 57 of 69 · 2.48 per game | 34 of 69 · 1.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Paris Saint Germain wins3 draws3 Monaco wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.70
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 25 Feb 2026Paris Saint Germain2–2Monaco
- 17 Feb 2026Monaco2–3Paris Saint Germain
- 29 Nov 2025Monaco1–0Paris Saint Germain
- 7 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain4–1Monaco
- 18 Dec 2024Monaco2–4Paris Saint Germain
- 1 Mar 2024Monaco0–0Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.21 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.79 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.17 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 58% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 54% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 25% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.18 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.41 | 8.83 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 5/22 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 3/22 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.96 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 2.63 | 4.25 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 21% 5/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 8% 2/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.00 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.80 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.70
Red cards0.40league 0.29
Cards 5+43%league 36%
Fouls23.9league 23.9
Penalties0.35league 0.39
Home wins42%league 50%
Paris Saint Germain10 with this referee
Record6-3-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W15 May 24A · Nice2–13
- D1 Mar 24A · Monaco0–00
- W2 Feb 24A · Strasbourg2–11
- W20 Dec 23H · Metz3–10
- W3 Nov 23H · Montpellier3–01
Monaco12 with this referee
Record7-2-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds5
- W31 Jan 26H · Rennes4–01
- L27 Sep 25A · Lorient1–33
- W16 Aug 25H · LE Havre3–10
- W21 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 292–04
- D1 Mar 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain24 games · scored 53 · conceded 19
8
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
11
4
31-45
7
4
46-60
10
2
61-75
12
5
76-90
Monaco24 games · scored 40 · conceded 36
3
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
5
46-60
9
6
61-75
10
11
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
