Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 36 pts · 16 played
WWLWW
2–1Full time
Paris FC
15th · 16 pts · 16 played
LLDDL
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 14). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 22.1 days of rest, Paris FC 22 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days22.1 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Paris Saint Germain94%
Draw5%
Paris FC2%
Paris Saint Germain92%
Draw6%
Paris FC2%
Paris Saint Germain93%
Draw5%
Paris FC2%
Paris Saint Germain90%
Draw7%
Paris FC3%
Paris Saint Germain92%
Draw6%
Paris FC2%
Over 2.5 84%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 4–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 113
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainParis FC
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
91
AttackIn forecast
46
83
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainParis FC
2.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
88%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
16.94
ShotsContext
12.19
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
38%
On target shareContext
29%
9.94
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
58%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.62
8.56
Shots allowedContext
10.75
3.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
2.77
BlocksContext
3.50
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
64%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
728
PassesContext
507
668
Accurate passesContext
441
92%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.94
FoulsContext
11.19
8.81
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
1.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.20
ShotsContext
10.80
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.40
37%
On target shareContext
22%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
63%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.25
8.30
Shots allowedContext
9.70
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.11
BlocksContext
2.78
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
65%
Save rateContext
65%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
676
PassesContext
504
612
Accurate passesContext
436
91%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.20
FoulsContext
11.90
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 22Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
25Nuno Mendes
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
87João Neves
24S. Mayulu
10M. Dembélé
14D. Doué
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
15T. Kolodziejczak
5M. Mbow
19N. Sangui
7Alimami Gory
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
93N. Ikoné
9W. Geubbels
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.15 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Paris FC-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-0
- Scored
- 2.43
- Conceded
- 0.43
Paris FC · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 3–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Rennes | W 5–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| LE Havre | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lyon | W 3–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Strasbourg | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Lille | D 1–1 A | L 2–4 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | L 2–5 A |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Toulouse | W 6–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 36 of 48 · 2.25 per game | 16 of 48 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.19 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 3.13 | 4.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.70 | 4.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.57 | 5.06 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.75 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 4/14 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 2/14 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.07 | 3.69 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 4/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 2/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 113 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.68
Red cards0.22league 0.35
Cards 5+48%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 24.2
Penalties0.42league 0.46
Home wins51%league 50%
Paris Saint Germain17 with this referee
Record12-3-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against5 · 1
Reds2
- W9 Nov 25A · Lyon3–22
- D5 Oct 25A · Lille1–11
- W17 Aug 25A · Nantes1–01
- W1 Feb 25A · Stade Brestois 295–20
- W15 Dec 24H · Lyon3–12
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain16 games · scored 35 · conceded 14
5
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
Paris FC16 games · scored 21 · conceded 29
3
3
0-15
4
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
8
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
