Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 36 pts · 16 played
WWLWW
2–1Full time
Paris FC
15th · 16 pts · 16 played
LLDDL
Paris Saint Germain93.7%fair odds 1.07
Draw4.8%fair odds 20.75
Paris FC1.5%fair odds 66.07
Expected goals4.08 – 0.52total 4.60
Likeliest score4–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Paris FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Paris Saint Germain ↓ · Paris FC → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 13.4 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris Saint Germain goals, columns Paris FC goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 4–011.6%8.60
- 3–011.4%8.77
- 5–09.5%10.54
- 2–08.4%11.94
- 6–06.5%15.49
- 4–16.1%16.50
- 3–15.9%16.83
- 5–14.9%20.21
- 2–14.4%22.90
- 1–04.0%25.05
Winning margin
67.3%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 1.49
16.1%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 6.19
10.2%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 9.79
4.8%
Draw
fair 20.75
1.2%
Paris FC by 1
fair 82.94
0.3%
Paris FC by 2
fair 379.67
0.0%
Paris FC by 3+
fair —
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
4%1
11%2
16%3
19%4
49%5+
Paris Saint Germain goals
2%0
7%1
14%2
19%3
58%4+
Paris FC goals
59%0
31%1
8%2
1%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain win | 93.7% | 92.4% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 4.8% | 5.8% | -1.0 pp |
| Paris FC win | 1.5% | 1.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 83.7% | 79.8% | +3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 40.1% | 38.2% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 4.08 | 3.77 | +0.31 |
| Expected goals Paris FC | 0.52 | 0.49 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Paris Saint Germain win93.7%1.07
- Draw4.8%20.75
- Paris FC win1.5%66.07
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw98.5%1.02
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or Paris FC95.2%1.05
- Double chance Paris FC or draw6.3%15.79
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain98.4%1.02
- Draw no bet Paris FC1.6%62.88
Goals
- Over 0.598.9%1.01
- Over 1.594.5%1.06
- Over 2.583.7%1.19
- Over 3.567.4%1.48
- Over 4.548.6%2.06
- Under 1.55.5%18.11
- Under 2.516.3%6.14
- Under 3.532.6%3.06
Both teams to score
- Yes40.1%2.50
- No59.9%1.67
- Yes and over 2.537.8%2.65
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes35.4%2.82
- Draw and yes3.7%27.03
- Paris FC win and yes0.9%106.52
Team goals
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.598.3%1.02
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.591.4%1.09
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.577.3%1.29
- Paris FC over 0.540.6%2.46
- Paris FC over 1.59.7%10.34
- Paris FC over 2.51.6%62.29
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet59.4%1.68
- Paris FC clean sheet1.7%59.03
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil58.3%1.72
- Paris FC win to nil0.6%173.97
Handicap
- Paris Saint Germain −1.583.5%1.20
- Paris Saint Germain −2.567.3%1.49
- Paris FC +1.516.5%6.04
- Paris FC +2.532.7%3.06
- Paris FC −1.50.3%324.71
- Paris Saint Germain +1.599.7%1.00
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored152
Favourite won55.3%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right52.0%
BTTS called right50.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 24 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 46 | 44.5% | 47.8% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 53.6% | 48.7% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.6% | 69.6% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.8% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.1% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 124 of 152 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6043 | 0.5949 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 40.7% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 124 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 152 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.