Ligue 1 Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 12 · 16:00 Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Paris FC 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Paris Saint Germain—%
Draw—%
Paris FC—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris Saint Germain and Paris FC. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Paris Saint GermainParis FC
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
91 AttackIn forecast 46
83 DefenceIn forecast 38
96 Form indexContext 73
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Paris FC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint GermainParis FC
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71
1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.65 xGVia Att/Def 2.11
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.40
100% Scored inContext 57%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
20.57 ShotsContext 14.43
7.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
35% On target shareContext 35%
11.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.43
56% Box shareContext 63%
10% ConversionContext 12%
3.20 OffsidesContext 1.71
10.86 Shots allowedContext 9.57
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
2.17 BlocksContext 3.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83
83% Save rateContext 71%
68% PossessionIn forecast 52%
708 PassesContext 575
637 Accurate passesContext 508
90% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.84
5.71 FoulsContext 13.71
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.57
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.77
1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
100% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
21.50 ShotsContext 14.40
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10
36% On target shareContext 35%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.70
56% Box shareContext 65%
12% ConversionContext 13%
3.33 OffsidesContext 2.10
11.90 Shots allowedContext 9.90
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56
3.22 BlocksContext 2.67
4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44
78% Save rateContext 69%
67% PossessionIn forecast 50%
702 PassesContext 524
632 Accurate passesContext 457
90% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.83
7.00 FoulsContext 12.40
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,180 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts
Paris FC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris Saint Germain Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Dec7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,180 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 51 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one22.221

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche
Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez
15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Paris FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50
Paris FC · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentParis Saint GermainParis FC
Strasbourg W 3–1 A W 2–1 H
Marseille W 2–1 A W 3–2 A
Rennes D 2–2 A W 4–3 H
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Paris Saint Germain wins0 draws1 Paris FC wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 17 May 2026Paris FC2–1Paris Saint Germain
  • 4 Jan 2026Paris Saint Germain2–1Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Paris Saint GermainParis FCForecast
Scored per game 2.001.71
Conceded per game 1.291.00
Match goals 3.292.71
Over 1.5 86%57%
Over 2.5 86%57%
Over 3.5 57%29%
Both teams scored 86%43%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 0%43%
Games77
Paris Saint GermainParis FCForecast
Scored per game 2.501.90
Conceded per game 1.401.00
Match goals 3.902.90
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 90%70%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 90%50%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Paris Saint GermainParis FCLeague
Corners
Corners won4.754.00
Corners conceded3.254.17
Match total8.008.179.63
Over 8.550% 2/433% 2/6
Over 9.525% 1/417% 1/6
Over 10.50% 0/417% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.002.29
Opponent cards2.431.57
Match total3.433.863.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.529% 2/743% 3/7
Paris Saint GermainParis FCLeague
Corners
Corners won5.574.00
Corners conceded4.144.11
Match total9.718.119.63
Over 8.571% 5/744% 4/9
Over 9.543% 3/733% 3/9
Over 10.529% 2/711% 1/9
Cards
Cards1.002.00
Opponent cards2.301.20
Match total3.303.203.47
Over 3.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Paris FC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
7 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Strasbourg Dec 1216:00 Nice Lens Dec 1216:00 Paris Saint Germain Paris FC Dec 1216:00 Rennes Monaco Dec 1216:00 Lorient Lille Dec 1216:00 Stade Brestois 29 Estac Troyes Dec 1216:00 Auxerre Toulouse Dec 1216:00 LE Havre Le Mans Dec 1216:00 Lyon Marseille Dec 1319:45