Lorient vs Lille – 12 Dec 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 12 · 16:00 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 7th · 11 pts · 7 played WDLWW

VS— Compare

Lille 4th · 14 pts · 7 played WWLWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel572 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Lorient—%

Draw—%

Lille—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Lorient)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Streak Lorient 6 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Defence

Streaks

Streak Lorient 6 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Lorient

Lille

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

28 AttackIn forecast 42

45 DefenceIn forecast 60

69 Form indexContext 39

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Lille

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

86% Scored inContext 100%

57% Clean sheetsContext 57%

9.86 ShotsContext 12.00

3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.57

35% On target shareContext 46%

6.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.14

70% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.25 OffsidesContext 3.00

13.86 Shots allowedContext 15.00

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

4.71 BlocksContext 3.50

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

83% Save rateContext 80%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

482 PassesContext 480

408 Accurate passesContext 417

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.99

9.29 FoulsContext 11.57

15.14 Fouls sufferedContext 14.43

1.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

80% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.80 ShotsContext 10.50

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

35% On target shareContext 42%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

65% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.43 OffsidesContext 3.11

13.60 Shots allowedContext 14.80

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.78 BlocksContext 4.00

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

81% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

458 PassesContext 480

390 Accurate passesContext 417

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.10 FoulsContext 10.90

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient WDLWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,539 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctH · Monaco1–01.2 xPts
W10 OctH · Paris FC1–01.4 xPts
L19 SepA · Le Mans1–21.3 xPts
D12 SepH · Toulouse2–21.6 xPts
W5 SepA · Lens1–00.6 xPts

Lille WLWLD

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel572 km1,678 km in 14d

Schedule load34%Moderate

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · Stade Brestois 291–11.8 xPts
L13 OctA · Arsenal0–30.4 xPts
W10 OctH · LE Havre1–02.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Nice1–21.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Estac Troyes2–02.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 34
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Dec	2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	572 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,539 km	1,678 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	21	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Monaco (H) 1–0, 18 Oct

38Y. Mvogo(G)

95S. Touré 3M. Talbi 32N. Adjei

43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 8Noah Cadiou 20D. Sylla

33Gabin Bernardeau 17J. Makengo

18I. Baldé

Lille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 1–1, 17 Oct

12O. Gill(G)

15R. Perraud 23T. Nianzou 3N. Ngoy 38Maxima Goffi

17N. Mukau 21B. André

7D. Bakwa 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé

9O. Giroud

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Lille · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Lille
Toulouse	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Estac Troyes	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Nice	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 A
Points	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Lorient wins1 draws4 Lille wins

Goals per game1.50 – 2.50 Over 2.588% Both scored88% Clean sheets0% · 13%

8 Mar 2026Lille1–1Lorient
30 Aug 2025Lorient1–7Lille
14 Jan 2024Lille3–0Lorient
27 Aug 2023Lorient4–1Lille
2 Apr 2023Lille3–1Lorient
2 Oct 2022Lorient2–1Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Lille
Scored per game	1.00	1.43
Conceded per game	0.86	0.71
Match goals	1.86	2.14
Over 1.5	43%	71%
Over 2.5	43%	29%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	43%
Clean sheets	57%	57%
Failed to score	14%	0%
Games	7	7

	Lorient	Lille
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.30
Match goals	2.30	2.50
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.83
Corners conceded	5.17	4.83
Match total	8.17	8.66	9.63
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.14	1.29
Opponent cards	2.29	1.71
Match total	3.43	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	14% 1/7

	Lorient	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	3.11	4.00
Corners conceded	5.67	4.50
Match total	8.78	8.50	9.63
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.30	3.40	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.