Ligue 1 Gameweek 33 Sun, May 10 · 20:00 Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain 1st · 70 pts · 31 played
1–0Full time
Stade Brestois 29 12th · 38 pts · 31 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Paris Saint Germain88.7%fair odds 1.13
Draw8.2%fair odds 12.26
Stade Brestois 293.1%fair odds 31.88
Expected goals3.44 – 0.60total 4.05
Likeliest score3–011.9%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Paris Saint Germain

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Stade Brestois 29

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Paris Saint Germain ↓ · Stade Brestois 29 →0123456+
01.90.90.30.10.00.00.0
15.83.81.10.20.00.00.0
210.46.31.90.40.10.00.0
311.97.22.20.40.10.00.0
410.36.21.90.40.10.00.0
57.14.31.30.30.00.00.0
6+7.34.41.30.30.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris Saint Germain goals, columns Stade Brestois 29 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 3–011.9%8.40
  • 2–010.4%9.64
  • 4–010.3%9.76
  • 3–17.2%13.92
  • 5–07.1%14.17
  • 2–16.3%15.98
  • 4–16.2%16.18
  • 1–05.8%17.13
  • 5–14.3%23.50
  • 6–04.1%24.69

Winning margin

54.3% Paris Saint Germain by 3+ fair 1.84
19.7% Paris Saint Germain by 2 fair 5.07
14.7% Paris Saint Germain by 1 fair 6.81
8.2% Draw fair 12.26
2.4% Stade Brestois 29 by 1 fair 41.47
0.6% Stade Brestois 29 by 2 fair 165.43
0.1% Stade Brestois 29 by 3+ fair 825.25

Goal distribution

Total goals

2%0
7%1
15%2
19%3
20%4
38%5+

Paris Saint Germain goals

3%0
11%1
19%2
22%3
45%4+

Stade Brestois 29 goals

55%0
33%1
10%2
2%3
0%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Paris Saint Germain win 88.7% 87.5% +1.2 pp
Draw 8.2% 9.0% -0.8 pp
Stade Brestois 29 win 3.1% 3.5% -0.4 pp
Over 2.5 76.8% 74.8% +2.1 pp
Both teams score 44.0% 43.9% +0.1 pp
Expected goals Paris Saint Germain 3.44 3.30 +0.14
Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 0.60 0.60 -0.00

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Paris Saint Germain win88.7%1.13
  • Draw8.2%12.26
  • Stade Brestois 29 win3.1%31.88
  • Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw96.9%1.03
  • Double chance Paris Saint Germain or Stade Brestois 2991.8%1.09
  • Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw11.3%8.86
  • Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain96.6%1.04
  • Draw no bet Stade Brestois 293.4%29.28

Goals

  • Over 0.598.1%1.02
  • Over 1.591.4%1.09
  • Over 2.576.8%1.30
  • Over 3.557.5%1.74
  • Over 4.538.0%2.63
  • Under 1.58.6%11.57
  • Under 2.523.2%4.32
  • Under 3.542.5%2.35

Both teams to score

  • Yes44.0%2.27
  • No56.0%1.79
  • Yes and over 2.540.2%2.49
  • Paris Saint Germain win and yes35.9%2.78
  • Draw and yes6.2%16.10
  • Stade Brestois 29 win and yes1.9%53.17

Team goals

  • Paris Saint Germain over 0.596.8%1.03
  • Paris Saint Germain over 1.585.8%1.17
  • Paris Saint Germain over 2.566.8%1.50
  • Stade Brestois 29 over 0.545.3%2.21
  • Stade Brestois 29 over 1.512.3%8.14
  • Stade Brestois 29 over 2.52.3%42.71
  • Paris Saint Germain clean sheet54.7%1.83
  • Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet3.2%31.25
  • Paris Saint Germain win to nil52.8%1.89
  • Stade Brestois 29 win to nil1.3%79.58

Handicap

  • Paris Saint Germain −1.574.0%1.35
  • Paris Saint Germain −2.554.3%1.84
  • Stade Brestois 29 +1.526.0%3.85
  • Stade Brestois 29 +2.545.7%2.19
  • Stade Brestois 29 −1.50.7%137.81
  • Paris Saint Germain +1.599.3%1.01

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored287 Favourite won54.7% Avg chance given to result41.9% 1X2 Brier0.586 Over 2.5 called right56.1% BTTS called right54.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4237.8%52.4%
40–50%8945.0%47.2%
50–60%7154.2%49.3%
60–70%4464.3%68.2%
70–80%2873.9%64.3%
80%+1386.1%76.9%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 231 of 287 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.60170.5893
Avg chance given to result41.2%41.2%
Favourite won51.9%53.2%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 231 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Latest results

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 287 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.