Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 70 pts · 31 played
WLWWD
1–0Full time
Stade Brestois 29
12th · 38 pts · 31 played
LLDDL
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain had 8.2 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7.2 and had to travel 505 km.
Away travel505 kmRest days8.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris Saint Germain89%
Draw8%
Stade Brestois 293%
Paris Saint Germain82%
Draw12%
Stade Brestois 295%
Paris Saint Germain88%
Draw9%
Stade Brestois 293%
Paris Saint Germain84%
Draw11%
Stade Brestois 295%
Paris Saint Germain88%
Draw9%
Stade Brestois 294%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 106
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
91
AttackIn forecast
47
83
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29
2.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
0.87
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
94%
Scored inContext
68%
52%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
17.42
ShotsContext
10.52
6.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
38%
On target shareContext
32%
11.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.58
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.81
7.81
Shots allowedContext
13.39
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.79
2.71
BlocksContext
3.97
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
70%
Save rateContext
64%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
714
PassesContext
364
653
Accurate passesContext
287
92%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.29
FoulsContext
12.74
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.52
1.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
100%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.50
ShotsContext
8.40
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.30
41%
On target shareContext
27%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
66%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.14
8.60
Shots allowedContext
16.40
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.29
BlocksContext
5.00
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
74%
Save rateContext
63%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
626
PassesContext
342
560
Accurate passesContext
266
90%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.76
8.10
FoulsContext
11.40
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel505 km1,010 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 505 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,010 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
89R. Bellucci(G)
21L. Hernández
6I. Zabarnyi
5Marquinhos
24S. Mayulu
8Fabián Ruiz
4Beraldo
27Dro Fernández
29B. Barcola
9Gonçalo Ramos
19K. Lee
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
4M. Diaz
24L. Tousart
71Raphael Marc Le Guen
27D. Guindo
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
7É. Dina Ebimbe
23K. Doumbia
19L. Ajorque
10R. Del Castillo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.14 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-2-2
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-9
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Angers | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Nantes | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Lyon | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 3–1 HW 6–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Nice | W 4–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Monaco | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 AW 5–0 H | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Marseille | W 5–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Lille | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 67 of 90 · 2.23 per game | 38 of 90 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
9 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws0 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game3.10 – 0.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 25 Oct 2025Stade Brestois 290–3Paris Saint Germain
- 19 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain7–0Stade Brestois 29
- 11 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 290–3Paris Saint Germain
- 1 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 292–5Paris Saint Germain
- 14 Sep 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Stade Brestois 29
- 28 Jan 2024Paris Saint Germain2–2Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.26 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.87 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.97 | 4.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 52% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 45% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 52% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 32% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.10 | 4.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 4.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.24 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 9.59 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 14/29 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 9/29 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 6/29 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.71 | 3.87 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 23% 7/31 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 3/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.63 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 3.68
Red cards0.27league 0.27
Cards 5+35%league 36%
Fouls23.9league 23.6
Penalties0.33league 0.37
Home wins41%league 47%
Paris Saint Germain14 with this referee
Record7-3-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- L19 Apr 26H · Lyon1–25
- W16 Jan 26H · Lille3–00
- L22 Sep 25A · Marseille0–10
- D6 Oct 24A · Nice1–12
- W17 Feb 24A · Nantes2–00
Stade Brestois 2910 with this referee
Record5-2-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.9
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds2
- D16 Mar 25H · Reims0–02
- W26 Oct 24A · Reims2–12
- D10 May 24H · Reims1–12
- W31 Mar 24A · Lorient1–04
- W24 Feb 24A · Strasbourg3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain31 games · scored 70 · conceded 27
11
3
0-15
6
6
16-30
15
4
31-45
10
5
46-60
12
3
61-75
16
6
76-90
Stade Brestois 2931 games · scored 41 · conceded 51
8
7
0-15
6
11
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
11
61-75
8
10
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 26 · conceded 10
5
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
6
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
