Parma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Parma22.3%fair odds 4.48
Draw28.3%fair odds 3.54
AS Roma49.4%fair odds 2.02
Expected goals0.87 – 1.43total 2.31
Likeliest score0–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Parma ↓ · AS Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Parma goals, columns AS Roma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–113.6%7.35
- 1–113.1%7.61
- 0–010.6%9.41
- 0–210.2%9.79
- 1–28.9%11.20
- 1–08.0%12.42
- 2–15.5%18.34
- 0–34.9%20.51
- 1–34.3%23.46
- 2–23.9%25.61
Winning margin
1.9%
Parma by 3+
fair 53.36
5.7%
Parma by 2
fair 17.64
14.8%
Parma by 1
fair 6.77
28.3%
Draw
fair 3.54
24.6%
AS Roma by 1
fair 4.06
15.2%
AS Roma by 2
fair 6.58
9.6%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 10.39
Goal distribution
Total goals
11%0
22%1
27%2
20%3
12%4
8%5+
Parma goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
AS Roma goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 22.3% | 22.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 28.3% | 26.8% | +1.4 pp |
| AS Roma win | 49.4% | 50.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.6% | 46.0% | -5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.0% | 49.4% | -4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Parma | 0.87 | 0.96 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.43 | 1.55 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Parma win22.3%4.48
- Draw28.3%3.54
- AS Roma win49.4%2.02
- Double chance Parma or draw50.6%1.98
- Double chance Parma or AS Roma71.7%1.39
- Double chance AS Roma or draw77.7%1.29
- Draw no bet Parma31.1%3.22
- Draw no bet AS Roma68.9%1.45
Goals
- Over 0.589.4%1.12
- Over 1.567.7%1.48
- Over 2.540.6%2.47
- Over 3.520.2%4.95
- Over 4.58.4%11.84
- Under 1.532.3%3.10
- Under 2.559.4%1.68
- Under 3.579.8%1.25
Both teams to score
- Yes45.0%2.22
- No55.0%1.82
- Yes and over 2.531.9%3.14
- Parma win and yes9.0%11.05
- Draw and yes17.6%5.67
- AS Roma win and yes18.3%5.45
Team goals
- Parma over 0.558.3%1.72
- Parma over 1.521.8%4.58
- Parma over 2.55.9%17.04
- AS Roma over 0.576.1%1.31
- AS Roma over 1.541.9%2.39
- AS Roma over 2.517.4%5.74
- Parma clean sheet23.9%4.19
- AS Roma clean sheet41.7%2.40
- Parma win to nil13.3%7.54
- AS Roma win to nil31.1%3.22
Handicap
- Parma −1.57.5%13.26
- Parma −2.51.9%53.36
- AS Roma +1.592.5%1.08
- AS Roma +2.598.1%1.02
- AS Roma −1.524.8%4.03
- Parma +1.575.2%1.33
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored357
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right51.8%
BTTS called right51.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 55 | 37.8% | 34.5% |
| 40–50% | 118 | 45.0% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 88 | 54.5% | 47.7% |
| 60–70% | 63 | 64.8% | 69.8% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.3% | 64.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 298 of 357 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5994 | 0.5865 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 298 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 357 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.