Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. Parma had 6.9 days of rest, AS Roma 5.9 and had to travel 368 km.
Away travel368 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Parma22%
Draw28%
AS Roma49%
Parma25%
Draw26%
AS Roma50%
Parma23%
Draw28%
AS Roma49%
Parma17%
Draw26%
AS Roma56%
Parma23%
Draw27%
AS Roma50%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 78
Team strength
Parma
AS Roma
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
20
AttackIn forecast
72
33
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaAS Roma
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.49
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
57%
Scored inContext
80%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
10.34
ShotsContext
12.74
3.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
26%
On target shareContext
35%
6.06
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
56%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.04
13.49
Shots allowedContext
9.71
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
3.88
BlocksContext
2.79
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
77%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
361
PassesContext
479
292
Accurate passesContext
401
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.40
FoulsContext
13.66
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
13.66
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.10
ShotsContext
11.20
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
28%
On target shareContext
33%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
54%
Box shareContext
77%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.50
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.20
BlocksContext
3.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
372
PassesContext
477
310
Accurate passesContext
394
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.30
FoulsContext
13.70
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km232 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel368 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 4 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 368 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 232 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
41H. Nicolussi
24C. Ordoñez
15E. Delprato
7Gabriel Strefezza
23N. Elphege
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
21P. Dybala
18M. Soulé
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AS Roma+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.06points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-7
- Scored
- 0.76
- Conceded
- 1.29
AS Roma · Away
1.47points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-8
- Scored
- 1.24
- Conceded
- 1.12
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Parma | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 0–2 AL 0–2 H | L 2–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Napoli | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Lazio | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Torino | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Juventus | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Lecce | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 42 of 102 · 1.24 per game | 61 of 102 · 1.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Parma wins0 draws3 AS Roma wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 29 Oct 2025AS Roma2–1Parma
- 16 Feb 2025Parma0–1AS Roma
- 22 Dec 2024AS Roma5–0Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.49 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.91 | 2.31 | 2.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 37% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 34% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 20% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Parma | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 3.40 | 2.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 60% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.97 | 4.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.68 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 8.65 | 8.31 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 15/31 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 11/31 | 31% 11/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 10/31 | 26% 9/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.66 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 4.06 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 20/35 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 12/35 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Parma | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 10.00 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.68
Red cards0.22league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 34%
Fouls22.6league 24.7
Penalties0.19league 0.28
Home wins41%league 39%
Parma4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D25 Oct 25H · Como0–00
- W23 Apr 25H · Juventus1–02
- L16 Feb 25H · AS Roma0–13
- W9 Nov 24A · Venezia2–12
AS Roma8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.9
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds4
- W18 Jan 26A · Torino2–01
- W4 May 25H · Fiorentina1–02
- W16 Feb 25A · Parma1–03
- W7 Dec 24H · Lecce4–12
- D3 May 23A · Monza1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma35 games · scored 25 · conceded 42
4
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
8
11
76-90
AS Roma35 games · scored 52 · conceded 29
8
5
0-15
8
16-30
9
5
31-45
8
7
46-60
12
3
61-75
7
9
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
