Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Parma. Parma had 6 days of rest, Como 6.1 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Parma32%
Draw28%
Como39%
Parma34%
Draw27%
Como38%
Parma33%
Draw29%
Como38%
Parma26%
Draw27%
Como46%
Parma34%
Draw27%
Como39%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 65
Team strength
Parma
Como
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
20
AttackIn forecast
72
33
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaComo
0.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
29%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.71
ShotsContext
14.43
2.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
25%
On target shareContext
34%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
56%
Box shareContext
62%
4%
ConversionContext
9%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.71
Shots allowedContext
10.86
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.71
4.43
BlocksContext
4.50
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
77%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
335
PassesContext
454
261
Accurate passesContext
386
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.86
FoulsContext
15.71
13.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.29
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
40%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
15.10
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
34%
On target shareContext
32%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
58%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.40
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
4.40
BlocksContext
4.13
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
71%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
333
PassesContext
472
257
Accurate passesContext
406
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.90
FoulsContext
13.90
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km236 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel148 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 236 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
27Sascha Britschgi
24C. Ordoñez
16L. Keita
8N. Estévez
10Adrián Bernabé
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
6M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
7Álvaro Morata
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Como+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Como · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Parma wins1 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 3 May 2025Parma0–1Como
- 19 Oct 2024Como1–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 1.43 | 2.00 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 71% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Parma | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 1.43 | 2.00 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 71% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.17 | 8.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 5.43 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Parma | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 7.63 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 3.82
Red cards0.25league 0.13
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.6league 26.0
Penalties0.18league 0.25
Home wins43%league 37%
Parma3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Apr 25H · Juventus1–02
- L16 Feb 25H · AS Roma0–13
- W9 Nov 24A · Venezia2–12
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma7 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Como6 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Como9 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
