Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 30). Parma had 5.1 days of rest, Lazio 6 and had to travel 368 km.
Away travel368 kmRest days5.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Parma27%
Draw28%
Lazio45%
Parma27%
Draw26%
Lazio46%
Parma26%
Draw28%
Lazio45%
Parma21%
Draw26%
Lazio53%
Parma28%
Draw26%
Lazio46%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 46
Team strength
Parma
Lazio
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
20
AttackIn forecast
53
33
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaLazio
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.79
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
50%
Scored inContext
50%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.43
ShotsContext
11.00
3.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
28%
On target shareContext
40%
6.46
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
58%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.55
OffsidesContext
1.29
13.36
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.92
BlocksContext
2.86
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.64
71%
Save rateContext
82%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
323
PassesContext
468
248
Accurate passesContext
399
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.43
FoulsContext
10.79
14.21
Fouls sufferedContext
16.86
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.60
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
28%
On target shareContext
46%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
59%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.11
BlocksContext
3.30
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
71%
Save rateContext
84%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
316
PassesContext
459
240
Accurate passesContext
388
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.20
FoulsContext
10.70
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
16.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km243 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel368 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Dec | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 368 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 243 km | 957 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
5L. Valenti
15E. Delprato
27Sascha Britschgi
21G. Oristanio
16L. Keita
8N. Estévez
10Adrián Bernabé
9Mateo Pellegrino
7A. Benedyczak
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
4Patric
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
11V. Castellanos
22M. Cancellieri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lazio+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.43
Lazio · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 0.43
- Conceded
- 0.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Bologna | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Parma wins1 draws0 Lazio wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Apr 2025Lazio2–2Parma
- 1 Dec 2024Parma3–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 0.79 | |
| Match goals | 1.93 | 1.93 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 21% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 14% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Parma | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 1.90 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.58 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 7.91 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 4/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 8% 1/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.86 | |
| Match total | 3.93 | 4.72 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Parma | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 7.45 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.87
Red cards0.15league 0.15
Cards 5+41%league 37%
Fouls25.4league 25.9
Penalties0.24league 0.33
Home wins43%league 40%
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
Lazio2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D22 Feb 25A · Venezia0–02
- W22 Dec 23A · Empoli2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma14 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Lazio14 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
