Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Parma were slight favourites.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 22). Parma had 4.9 days of rest, Lecce 5.9 and had to travel 810 km.
Away travel810 kmRest days4.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Parma51%
Draw27%
Lecce22%
Parma52%
Draw25%
Lecce23%
Parma50%
Draw27%
Lecce23%
Parma43%
Draw28%
Lecce28%
Parma53%
Draw25%
Lecce23%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 68
Team strength
Parma
Lecce
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
20
AttackIn forecast
36
33
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaLecce
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
40%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
9.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
26%
On target shareContext
27%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
54%
Box shareContext
66%
5%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.25
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.60
BlocksContext
3.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
71%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
323
PassesContext
330
253
Accurate passesContext
258
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.62
10.80
FoulsContext
10.40
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
9.70
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
28%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
61%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.30
BlocksContext
3.20
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
77%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
318
PassesContext
309
246
Accurate passesContext
235
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.60
FoulsContext
11.00
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km88 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel810 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Sep | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 810 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 88 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
10Adrián Bernabé
16L. Keita
22O. Sørensen
27Sascha Britschgi
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
10M. Berisha
20Y. Ramadani
29L. Coulibaly
23R. Sottil
9N. Štulić
50S. Pierotti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Lecce-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lecce · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Parma wins1 draws1 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Jan 2025Parma1–3Lecce
- 21 Sep 2024Lecce2–2Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.80 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Parma | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.80 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 10.20 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.40 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Parma | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 10.70 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 3.65
Red cards0.21league 0.14
Cards 5+28%league 37%
Fouls24.9league 25.7
Penalties0.22league 0.25
Home wins26%league 39%
Parma2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 May 25H · Napoli0–02
- D5 Apr 25H · Inter2–22
Lecce8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L8 Mar 25H · AC Milan2–32
- W21 Apr 24A · Sassuolo3–00
- L25 Feb 24H · Inter0–41
- L21 Jan 24H · Juventus0–31
- D3 Dec 23H · Bologna1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma5 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Lecce5 games · scored 4 · conceded 10
2
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
