Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Parma were slight favourites.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 18). Absences weigh more on Verona. Parma had 7.1 days of rest, Verona 8.8 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7.1 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Parma54%
Draw26%
Verona20%
Parma55%
Draw24%
Verona21%
Parma52%
Draw27%
Verona21%
Parma47%
Draw28%
Verona25%
Parma56%
Draw24%
Verona20%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 69
Team strength
Parma
Verona
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
20
AttackIn forecast
15
33
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVerona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaVerona
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
50%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.63
ShotsContext
10.75
2.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
25%
On target shareContext
37%
6.55
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
57%
Box shareContext
58%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
1.65
OffsidesContext
2.26
14.33
Shots allowedContext
13.21
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.48
4.30
BlocksContext
4.17
3.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
70%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
346
PassesContext
331
275
Accurate passesContext
247
79%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.64
10.58
FoulsContext
15.50
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
8.96
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.67
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
50%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.90
ShotsContext
9.10
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
21%
On target shareContext
32%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
4.80
56%
Box shareContext
51%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.70
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.80
BlocksContext
4.30
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
380
PassesContext
360
314
Accurate passesContext
276
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.60
10.80
FoulsContext
13.60
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Verona
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Verona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 8.8Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 174 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
5A. Edmundsson
15V. Nelsson
37A. Bella-Kotchap
12D. Bradarić
21A. Harroui
73Al Musrati
36C. Niasse
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
18K. Bowie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Verona
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Verona-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
0.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.42
Verona · Away
0.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-6
- Scored
- 0.58
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Juventus | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 HD 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 23 of 69 · 1.00 per game | 15 of 69 · 0.65 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Parma wins1 draws1 Verona wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 23 Nov 2025Verona1–2Parma
- 31 Mar 2025Verona0–0Parma
- 15 Dec 2024Parma2–3Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 1.92 | 2.46 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 58% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Parma | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.91 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 8.46 | 8.54 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 9/22 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 3.79 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 16/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Parma | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.40 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.57league 3.83
Red cards0.26league 0.19
Cards 5+54%league 37%
Fouls25.8league 25.5
Penalties0.41league 0.32
Home wins35%league 38%
Parma2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Jan 26H · Genoa0–03
- W23 Nov 25A · Verona2–13
Verona4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Nov 25H · Parma1–24
- L19 Apr 25A · AS Roma0–12
- D30 Jan 23A · Udinese1–13
- D19 Feb 22A · AS Roma2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma24 games · scored 16 · conceded 30
1
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
4
8
76-90
Verona24 games · scored 18 · conceded 41
1
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
1
14
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
