PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
PEC Zwolle
12th · 27 pts · 24 played
LWLLD
First leg1–3
0–0Full time
Ajax
4th · 43 pts · 24 played
WDDWD
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle had 6.9 days of rest, Ajax 7.6 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days6.9 · 7.6Matches / 14d2 · 1
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw25%
Ajax48%
PEC Zwolle25%
Draw26%
Ajax49%
PEC Zwolle26%
Draw25%
Ajax49%
PEC Zwolle21%
Draw23%
Ajax56%
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw26%
Ajax47%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 56
Team strength
PEC ZwolleAjax
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
17
AttackIn forecast
66
14
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleAjax
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.96
2.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
88%
Scored inContext
96%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
9.04
ShotsContext
14.75
3.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
39%
On target shareContext
42%
5.61
Shots in the boxContext
10.63
62%
Box shareContext
72%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.70
16.75
Shots allowedContext
12.96
6.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
4.17
BlocksContext
4.05
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.52
68%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
370
PassesContext
523
291
Accurate passesContext
451
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.88
FoulsContext
10.04
12.08
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
100%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.70
ShotsContext
15.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
45%
On target shareContext
41%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
65%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.43
15.60
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.00
BlocksContext
3.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
68%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
394
PassesContext
543
312
Accurate passesContext
470
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.90
FoulsContext
8.60
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km264 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest7.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 264 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
8Z. Buurmeester
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
7S. Shoretire
10Koen Kostons
9Y. Namli
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
2Lucas Rosa
10O. Gloukh
6Y. Regeer
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
25W. Weghorst
43Rayane Bounida
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Ajax-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.36
Ajax · Away
1.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-7-1
- Scored
- 2.09
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Telstar | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–6 A | W 2–0 H |
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Heracles | L 2–8 A | W 2–0 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 27 of 69 · 1.17 per game | 40 of 69 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 PEC Zwolle wins1 draws3 Ajax wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 13 Sep 2025Ajax3–1PEC Zwolle
- 9 Mar 2025PEC Zwolle0–1Ajax
- 24 Nov 2024Ajax2–0PEC Zwolle
- 17 Dec 2023Ajax2–2PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.08 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 58% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 75% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 4% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| PEC Zwolle | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.18 | 4.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.95 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 9.77 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 12/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 11/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.42 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 3.26 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 10/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 6/24 | 29% 7/24 | |
| PEC Zwolle | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.26 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.30
Red cards0.30league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 30%
Fouls22.5league 21.6
Penalties0.18league 0.25
Home wins48%league 45%
PEC Zwolle6 with this referee
Record1-0-5
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Dec 25A · Excelsior1–21
- L13 Sep 25A · Ajax1–31
- L9 Feb 25A · AZ Alkmaar0–23
- W29 Sep 24H · Almere City FC1–02
- L24 Aug 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–14
Ajax4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W6 Dec 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–14
- W13 Sep 25H · PEC Zwolle3–12
- W5 Nov 23H · Heerenveen4–11
- D3 Sep 23A · Fortuna Sittard0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle23 games · scored 34 · conceded 48
9
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
16
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
10
76-90
Ajax24 games · scored 47 · conceded 31
9
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
12
6
31-45
9
8
46-60
3
5
61-75
8
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
5
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
6
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
