PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
PEC Zwolle
13th · 33 pts · 29 played
DDDWL
First leg1–2
2–2Full time
Excelsior
16th · 27 pts · 29 played
LLLDL
Our take
PEC Zwolle were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. PEC Zwolle had 7.1 days of rest, Excelsior 7.7 and had to travel 128 km.
Away travel128 kmRest days7.1 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
PEC Zwolle46%
Draw25%
Excelsior28%
PEC Zwolle49%
Draw26%
Excelsior25%
PEC Zwolle47%
Draw25%
Excelsior28%
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw26%
Excelsior35%
PEC Zwolle46%
Draw26%
Excelsior28%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 33
Team strength
PEC ZwolleExcelsior
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
17
AttackIn forecast
21
14
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleExcelsior
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
83%
Scored inContext
76%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.55
ShotsContext
11.59
3.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
37%
On target shareContext
34%
6.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
64%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.45
16.48
Shots allowedContext
14.76
6.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.72
4.03
BlocksContext
4.00
4.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
69%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
369
PassesContext
390
289
Accurate passesContext
305
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.38
FoulsContext
11.86
11.62
Fouls sufferedContext
8.52
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
1.34
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
33%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
67%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.86
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.90
BlocksContext
2.60
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
70%
Save rateContext
73%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
398
PassesContext
408
315
Accurate passesContext
318
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.10
FoulsContext
9.90
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km58 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel128 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 128 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 58 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.3 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
8Z. Buurmeester
30R. Thomas
18O. Velanas
25T. Oosting
9Y. Namli
10Koen Kostons
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
14L. Schouten
4C. Widell
3R. Meissen
2Ilias Bronkhorst
11G. de Regt
20L. Hartjes
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
10N. Naujoks
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Excelsior+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.71points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.21
Excelsior · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–5 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Groningen | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Ajax | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Telstar | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 HL 0–5 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Feyenoord | L 1–6 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Heracles | L 2–8 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 33 of 84 · 1.18 per game | 24 of 84 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws1 Excelsior wins
Goals per game2.50 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025Excelsior2–1PEC Zwolle
- 22 Oct 2023Excelsior2–4PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 3.31 | 2.69 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 59% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 62% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 24% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| PEC Zwolle | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.30 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.74 | 5.48 | |
| Match total | 9.52 | 9.58 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 15/27 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.48 | 1.41 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 2.86 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 12/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 7/29 | 21% 6/29 | |
| PEC Zwolle | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 10.20 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.40 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.21league 3.18
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+27%league 26%
Fouls21.9league 21.2
Penalties0.24league 0.23
Home wins36%league 45%
PEC Zwolle4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D24 Sep 25A · AZ Alkmaar2–22
- D15 Mar 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–10
- L26 Oct 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–61
- D17 Sep 23H · GO Ahead Eagles1–11
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L8 Nov 25H · Heracles1–21
- L10 Feb 24H · Twente0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle28 games · scored 38 · conceded 56
9
6
0-15
5
8
16-30
7
16
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
12
76-90
Excelsior29 games · scored 29 · conceded 49
6
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
5
8
31-45
2
13
46-60
3
9
61-75
9
8
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
