PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
PEC Zwolle
13th · 30 pts · 27 played
LDDDD
First leg2–2
2–1Full time
NAC Breda
17th · 23 pts · 27 played
WWLDL
Our take
PEC Zwolle were slight favourites.
PEC Zwolle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 13). Absences weigh more on PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle had 8 days of rest, NAC Breda 6.2 and had to travel 137 km.
Away travel137 kmRest days8 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
PEC Zwolle51%
Draw25%
NAC Breda24%
PEC Zwolle52%
Draw25%
NAC Breda23%
PEC Zwolle53%
Draw24%
NAC Breda23%
PEC Zwolle43%
Draw26%
NAC Breda31%
PEC Zwolle51%
Draw25%
NAC Breda24%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 26
Team strength
PEC ZwolleNAC Breda
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
17
AttackIn forecast
19
14
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleNAC Breda
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
85%
Scored inContext
59%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
9.37
ShotsContext
13.04
3.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.28
39%
On target shareContext
30%
5.96
Shots in the boxContext
8.12
64%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.95
16.44
Shots allowedContext
12.56
5.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.19
4.07
BlocksContext
3.04
4.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.54
70%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
370
PassesContext
387
291
Accurate passesContext
303
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.93
FoulsContext
10.81
11.63
Fouls sufferedContext
12.26
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.20
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
45%
On target shareContext
30%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
67%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.20
BlocksContext
3.56
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
76%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
397
PassesContext
354
315
Accurate passesContext
265
79%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.70
FoulsContext
9.60
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km256 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel137 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Mar | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 137 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 256 km | 242 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.6 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
5T. Velthuis
6T. Gooijer
8Z. Buurmeester
30R. Thomas
18O. Velanas
25T. Oosting
9Y. Namli
10Koen Kostons
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
20F. Oldrup Jensen
3D. Odoi
8C. Leemans
16M. Balard
10M. Nassoh
11R. Paula
7C. Brym
19A. Salama
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- NAC Breda+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.23
NAC Breda · Away
0.54points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-8
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Ajax | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Telstar | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | L 3–4 HL 0–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 1–6 A | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Heracles | L 2–8 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | L 0–6 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 29 of 78 · 1.12 per game | 22 of 78 · 0.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 PEC Zwolle wins1 draws1 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025NAC Breda2–2PEC Zwolle
- 4 May 2025NAC Breda1–3PEC Zwolle
- 20 Oct 2024PEC Zwolle1–2NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.93 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.81 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 48% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 41% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| PEC Zwolle | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.68 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.48 | 9.52 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 14/25 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.45 | 3.89 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 12/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 7/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| PEC Zwolle | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.10 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.50 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.19league 3.24
Red cards0.04league 0.17
Cards 5+12%league 28%
Fouls22.0league 21.4
Penalties0.12league 0.24
Home wins38%league 45%
PEC Zwolle2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Oct 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–20
- D13 Apr 25H · Twente1–12
NAC Breda3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Jan 26H · NEC Nijmegen3–42
- L14 May 25A · NEC Nijmegen0–30
- L1 Mar 25A · Utrecht0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle26 games · scored 36 · conceded 50
9
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
16
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
4
61-75
6
12
76-90
NAC Breda27 games · scored 28 · conceded 48
1
6
0-15
4
7
16-30
8
10
31-45
6
7
46-60
1
5
61-75
8
13
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
