PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 22). Absences weigh more on PSV Eindhoven. PEC Zwolle had 7.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7 and had to travel 126 km.
Away travel126 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
PEC Zwolle16%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven63%
PEC Zwolle16%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven62%
PEC Zwolle15%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven64%
PEC Zwolle12%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven70%
PEC Zwolle17%
Draw23%
PSV Eindhoven61%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 28
Team strength
PEC Zwolle
PSV Eindhoven
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
17
AttackIn forecast
60
14
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwollePSV Eindhoven
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.12
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.88
71%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
8.71
ShotsContext
19.29
2.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.86
28%
On target shareContext
41%
5.29
Shots in the boxContext
12.14
62%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.57
Shots allowedContext
14.86
6.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.29
BlocksContext
4.86
4.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
73%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
370
PassesContext
527
292
Accurate passesContext
451
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.12
10.14
FoulsContext
11.57
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
8.86
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
17.50
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
31%
On target shareContext
39%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
61%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.63
15.20
Shots allowedContext
13.90
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.70
BlocksContext
4.30
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
74%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
405
PassesContext
532
329
Accurate passesContext
456
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.50
FoulsContext
10.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km322 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel126 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 126 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 322 km | 174 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
22K. de Rooij
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
19J. Faberski
10Koen Kostons
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
11C. Driouech
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
20G. Til
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Telstar | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws3 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 18 Jan 2025PEC Zwolle3–1PSV Eindhoven
- 26 Oct 2024PSV Eindhoven6–0PEC Zwolle
- 24 Feb 2024PEC Zwolle1–7PSV Eindhoven
- 12 Nov 2023PSV Eindhoven4–0PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 4.57 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| PEC Zwolle | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 4.57 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 6.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 7.83 | 11.57 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.00 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| PEC Zwolle | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 11.78 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.60 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.53
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+29%league 36%
Fouls23.2league 22.5
Penalties0.39league 0.20
Home wins46%league 48%
PEC Zwolle2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Nov 24A · Ajax0–21
- L24 Feb 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–72
PSV Eindhoven2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Feb 24A · PEC Zwolle7–10
- W23 Sep 23A · Almere City FC4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle6 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven7 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
