PEC Zwolle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PEC Zwolle16.0%fair odds 6.25
Draw21.2%fair odds 4.73
PSV Eindhoven62.8%fair odds 1.59
Expected goals0.97 – 2.10total 3.07
Likeliest score0–210.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PEC Zwolle ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PEC Zwolle goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.2%9.77
- 1–110.0%10.04
- 1–29.9%10.07
- 0–19.3%10.81
- 0–37.2%13.95
- 1–36.9%14.39
- 0–05.1%19.43
- 2–24.8%20.77
- 2–14.6%21.81
- 1–04.0%24.98
Winning margin
1.5%
PEC Zwolle by 3+
fair 68.71
4.1%
PEC Zwolle by 2
fair 24.40
10.4%
PEC Zwolle by 1
fair 9.58
21.2%
Draw
fair 4.73
23.2%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.31
19.2%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 5.20
20.4%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 4.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
PEC Zwolle goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 16.0% | 16.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 21.2% | 22.6% | -1.4 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 62.8% | 60.6% | +2.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 54.7% | +4.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.0% | 52.3% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals PEC Zwolle | 0.97 | 0.93 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.10 | 1.95 | +0.15 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PEC Zwolle win16.0%6.25
- Draw21.2%4.73
- PSV Eindhoven win62.8%1.59
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw37.2%2.69
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or PSV Eindhoven78.8%1.27
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw84.0%1.19
- Draw no bet PEC Zwolle20.3%4.93
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven79.7%1.25
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.6%1.23
- Over 2.559.2%1.69
- Over 3.536.8%2.72
- Over 4.519.6%5.09
- Under 1.518.4%5.43
- Under 2.540.8%2.45
- Under 3.563.2%1.58
Both teams to score
- Yes55.0%1.82
- No45.0%2.22
- Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
- PEC Zwolle win and yes8.9%11.25
- Draw and yes16.0%6.25
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes30.1%3.33
Team goals
- PEC Zwolle over 0.562.1%1.61
- PEC Zwolle over 1.525.3%3.95
- PEC Zwolle over 2.57.5%13.37
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.587.7%1.14
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.562.0%1.61
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.535.0%2.86
- PEC Zwolle clean sheet12.3%8.16
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet37.9%2.64
- PEC Zwolle win to nil7.1%14.08
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil32.8%3.05
Handicap
- PEC Zwolle −1.55.6%18.00
- PEC Zwolle −2.51.5%68.71
- PSV Eindhoven +1.594.4%1.06
- PSV Eindhoven +2.598.5%1.01
- PSV Eindhoven −1.539.7%2.52
- PEC Zwolle +1.560.3%1.66
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored66
Favourite won53.0%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right68.2%
BTTS called right60.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 37.9% | 22.2% |
| 40–50% | 20 | 44.1% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 55.9% | 55.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 64.0% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.2% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 44 of 66 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5589 | 0.5290 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.6% | 45.0% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 59.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 44 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 66 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.